The vote held by the United States Senate on Wednesday evening in favour of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026—an act that includes an annex repealing the Caesar Act imposed on Syria—marks a pivotal moment in the trajectory of sanctions that have burdened the country for years. The bill passed with a decisive majority of 77 votes to 20, effectively clearing the way for the termination of one of the most consequential legal frameworks shaping Syria’s economy and state institutions.
With both the House of Representatives and the Senate having approved the defence budget, the final step is the signature of U.S. President Donald Trump. Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, head of political affairs at the Syrian American Council, described this step as a largely “procedural” formality expected within days, reflecting a clear shift in Washington’s approach to the Syrian file after a prolonged period of isolation and sanctions.
Yet the importance of this development extends beyond its legal and economic dimensions, reaching into its potential impact on Syria’s fragmented internal landscape, characterised by divided geography and multiple de facto authorities.
Does lifting the Caesar Act open the door to strengthening the Syrian government’s legitimacy, revitalising investment, and reconnecting the country’s regions within a unified economic and administrative framework? Or were sanctions only one variable in a far more complex equation shaping Syria’s territorial cohesion?
Development as a Source of Internal Legitimacy
The repeal of Caesar Act sanctions is not merely an economic measure. It carries political and social implications linked to rebuilding the relationship between the state and society. Observers note that gradual, tangible economic development often becomes one of the most important sources of internal legitimacy, restoring public confidence in the state’s ability to meet citizens’ needs and to function as the central framework for managing resources and ensuring stability.
In this context, the U.S. Department of State stated last November, in connection with the lifting of sanctions on Syria, that the objective was to grant Syrians a genuine opportunity for economic recovery, support stability, and enable state institutions to perform their basic functions. The statement emphasised that easing economic restrictions aims to reduce chaos, curb the shadow economy, and foster conditions conducive to rebuilding the economy on more sustainable foundations.
Political researcher Bassam Suleiman argues that the effects of lifting the Caesar Act will not be immediate but will become evident over the medium term. He explains that gradual economic improvement can bolster the Syrian government’s internal legitimacy and encourage actors previously distant from the state-building process to align with it once tangible results emerge on the ground.
Speaking to Syria TV, Suleiman adds that a state pursuing a genuine development path, while responding to people’s needs and aspirations, will naturally diminish the role of sub-state actors. Residents, even in areas under the control of such entities, may begin to question their continued relevance in the absence of development and economic revival.
From this perspective, Suleiman considers the repeal of the Caesar Act a key step in the state-building process, marking a transition away from the war economy and reducing the influence of forces operating outside the state framework, in favour of an authority grounded in development as a source of legitimacy and stability.
Indirect Political Effects
The Syrian government views the lifting of the Caesar Act as a gateway to enhanced international cooperation and reintegration into the global financial system, potentially paving the way for improved political and security conditions across various regions after years of isolation.
Economists note that repealing the sanctions opens new avenues for economic engagement and alleviates pressures that had obstructed reconstruction and stabilisation efforts, potentially reshaping relations among domestic actors as well as with regional and international partners.
In this vein, Ahmed Qurbi, director of the Consensus Unit at the Syrian Dialogue Centre, explains that the impact of lifting sanctions on unifying Syria’s geography is fundamentally indirect. He notes that repealing the Caesar Act sends a clear political signal from the United States, the broader West, and Arab states in support of the Syrian government. However, he cautions that states rarely relinquish all leverage at once, and Washington, in particular, is unlikely to easily abandon the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Qurbi told Syria TV that lifting the Caesar Act may increase political pressure on both the SDF and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, yet he doubts it will directly lead to geographic unification. Among the reasons, he argues, is that Syria’s territorial challenges are not primarily rooted in the sanctions regime. Moreover, independent actors remain influential, most notably Israel, which continues to exert pressure in Syria regardless of the Caesar Act and had previously advocated for its retention.
A researcher at the Jusoor Centre shares this assessment, noting that full repeal of the Caesar Act represents a principal gateway to opening doors that could positively affect crisis resolution, including investment and economic recovery. However, he stresses that unifying Syria’s geography depends on deeper political and security trajectories that go beyond the sanctions file and require internal consensus alongside regional and international guarantees. In this sense, lifting the Caesar Act remains a facilitating and complementary factor, rather than a decisive one.
A Test for the Government Before Geographic Unification
The repeal of the Caesar Act does not automatically lead to the unification of Syria’s geography. Rather, it places the Syrian government before a practical test of its capacity to move from breaking isolation to building a stable and functional state. While lifting sanctions presents a significant political and economic opportunity, its benefits are conditional upon concrete reforms preceding any broader outcomes related to national unity.
According to the full legislative text of the U.S. defence budget, paragraph (a) mandates the complete repeal of sanctions imposed under the Caesar Act of 2019. Paragraph (b), however, establishes a political and security oversight mechanism requiring the U.S. President to submit periodic reports to Congress over four years. These reports, including public assessments and classified annexes when necessary, evaluate the Syrian government’s compliance with key criteria, such as combating ISIS and designated terrorist organisations, respecting religious and ethnic minority rights, distancing foreign fighters from decision-making positions, countering money laundering and terrorism financing, and implementing the 10 March 2025 agreement with the SDF.
Syrian-American politician Ayman Abdel Nour affirms that lifting the Caesar Act marks an important milestone on Syria’s path toward stabilisation and reconstruction, though it does not represent the end of that journey. He emphasises that success depends on the government’s commitment to implementing the eight provisions outlined in the relevant U.S. Congressional decision governing the repeal and its follow-up mechanisms.
In remarks to Syria TV, Abdel Nour notes that while investors may initially welcome the repeal, they will not enter the Syrian market without a clear and credible investment environment. This, he explains, requires independent commercial courts, international arbitration mechanisms, stable energy infrastructure at competitive prices, a skilled technical workforce, and infrastructure capable of supporting large-scale projects.
He further underscores the importance of transparent monetary and fiscal policies, a free press, and effective security guarantees, arguing that these conditions—not merely legal relief from sanctions—constitute the real gateway to attracting investment.
In conclusion, lifting the Caesar Act should be seen not as a final achievement but as a phase in testing the Syrian government’s seriousness in building a capable state that is both internally and externally acceptable. Before addressing geographic unification, the central challenge lies in entrenching effective institutions, creating a secure economic environment, and establishing transparent governance—ensuring that the post-Caesar era represents not only sanctions relief, but the beginning of a sustainable path toward stability.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
