With the assassination of the Lebanese Hezbollah leader, Israel has significantly diminished the ranks of the party’s founding leaders. This includes notable figures such as Hassan Nasrallah, Fouad Shukr, and Ibrahim Aqeel, who participated in attacks against US forces in Lebanon in 1983.
Despite US denials that Israel informed it of the September 27 attack in the southern suburbs, which resulted in the death of the Hezbollah leader, Vice President Kamala Harris referred to him as a “terrorist” and accused him of causing the deaths of innocent people in Lebanon, Syria, and Israel. This statement aligns with US support for Israel’s actions. Just a day prior to the assassination, Tel Aviv received an $8.7 billion military aid package from Washington, raising questions about the US’s commitment to ending the war and suggesting that it may enable Israel to pursue its objectives further.
Hezbollah’s centrality to Iranian influence
Lebanese Hezbollah is not merely an Iranian-backed faction; its leader, Nasrallah, was one of the most prominent leaders among Tehran-backed groups under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He maintained a close relationship with Qassem Soleimani, the former Quds Force commander who played a crucial role in expanding Iran’s influence in the Arab region until his assassination by a US drone strike in 2020.
Given its importance and reliability, Hezbollah was tasked with intervening in Syria to prevent the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Additionally, its leaders have trained and developed the combat and political capabilities of the Yemeni Houthi group. Many Hezbollah leaders, including Muhammad Ismail Ali, the commander of the missile force who was killed in recent Israeli raids, have been actively involved.
Hezbollah and the Syrian Regime: A History of Divergence and Strategic Alliance
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has also assigned Hezbollah the responsibility of overseeing sensitive military bases in Syria and Iraq. These include the scientific research facility in Masyaf, used for weapon development, and the Jurf al-Sakhar base in western Iraq, which serves as a military hub for the Quds Force and its Arab affiliates. This base includes factories for producing drones and missiles, where Iraqi factions and the Houthis are trained before their deployments to Yemen and Syria.
Recognizing Hezbollah’s favored status with Iran, other Iran-backed factions, particularly the Houthis and Harakat al-Nujaba of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, have sought to align themselves with Hezbollah and emulate its model.
US Efforts to Fragment Iranian Influence
What suggests that the liquidation of Lebanese Hezbollah leaders is part of a broader strategy to dismantle Iranian influence in the region is the coordinated efforts by the United States in both Yemen and Iraq to isolate these countries from each other.
In Yemen, the US has significantly bolstered UN initiatives aimed at encouraging the Houthi group to concentrate on domestic issues. Concurrently, military actions, including airstrikes against the Houthis, have intensified since the start of the year, alongside economic measures implemented by the Yemeni government to limit the group’s power.
In Iraq, Washington has engaged the pro-Iranian factions in negotiations about the future of US forces and the security landscape. This has led both the factions and the Iraqi government to adopt a cautious approach, limiting their support for Hezbollah and Hamas to avoid straining relations with the US
With the death of Nasrallah and the ongoing assassinations of IRGC commanders linked to Lebanon and Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s regime may find itself with more freedom to pursue a rapprochement with Arab states and Turkey, unencumbered by Hezbollah’s influence, which had previously served as Iran’s guardian in Syria following Russia’s military intervention in 2015.
The Iranian silence regarding the elimination of Hezbollah leaders, similar to its muted response after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Shukr, may lead some groups to reassess their strategies. This could result in increased caution and a greater effort to maintain communication with Washington, particularly among certain Iraqi factions, as reliance on Iranian support alone is proving insufficient for survival.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
