Syria has entered a new chapter following the dramatic ousting of Bashar al-Assad, with significant developments shaping the country’s fragile transition and its broader regional implications. This news roundup delves into key issues, including the perspectives of Thomas Friedman on Syria’s geopolitical challenges, the lingering threat of chemical weapons, Russia’s strategic recalibrations, and the evolving dynamics of Israeli and Turkish involvement. Additionally, the coverage highlights the transformation of Syria’s illicit Captagon trade and the statements of new Syrian leaders seeking to redefine the nation’s trajectory. Together, these stories provide a comprehensive view of the multifaceted challenges and opportunities facing Syria in this critical period of change.
Thomas Friedman on Syria, the U.S., and Trump’s Challenges
Thomas L. Friedman discusses the implications of Bashar al-Assad’s recent ousting in Syria, the challenges the United States faces in addressing weak states like Syria, and the broader geopolitical consequences for the Middle East.
In an interview with Daniel Waking in The New York Times, Friedman emphasizes that Assad’s fall marks a turning point after over 50 years of authoritarian rule by the Assad family. He explains that the removal of such an “iron-fisted” regime can lead to one of two outcomes in the Middle East: countries either implode (internal chaos) or explode (regional destabilization). Syria, being a microcosm of the Middle East’s diversity, risks the latter, as various ethnic and sectarian groups may turn to external powers for support, leading to regional interference.
He views Syria as a “keystone” of the Levant, whose stability—or lack thereof—will shape the next 50 years of the region. Managing Syria’s fragile transition is critical to preventing further fragmentation and chaos.
Friedman is cautiously optimistic that the new rulers, despite their Islamist roots, might adopt a more pluralistic approach to governance. He predicts a merger between their ideological goals and the realities of governing Syria’s diverse society. This could tilt the country in a positive direction, potentially influencing neighboring states like Iraq to strengthen their own pluralistic democracy.
Friedman warns of dire consequences if Syria’s transition is mishandled:
Refugee crises could overwhelm neighbouring countries and Europe.
A collapse in Syria could destabilize Jordan, a key U.S. ally, and erode regional stability.
A security vacuum could lead to renewed violence among factions and the resurgence of ISIS, particularly as thousands of ISIS prisoners are held in camps with uncertain futures.
Lessons from Iraq
Drawing parallels with the U.S. intervention in Iraq, Friedman stresses the importance of avoiding past mistakes, such as de-Ba’athification, which excluded many from governance and fueled the insurgency. He notes that Syria’s transition differs significantly from Iraq’s top-down regime change; Syria’s revolution was bottom-up, giving Syrians a stronger sense of ownership over their future.
He highlights the U.S.’s potential role in guiding Syria’s transition, particularly by leveraging its influence to encourage inclusive governance and prevent power vacuums.
The U.S. Role in Syria
Friedman advocates for proactive U.S. engagement in Syria, emphasizing that relatively modest investments in time and resources could yield significant positive outcomes. He argues that abandoning Syria would lead to a “free-for-all” involving Turkey, Israel, Russia, and others, all pursuing their own interests. This would exacerbate instability and harm U.S. allies like Jordan and Israel.
He urges the U.S. to “tilt” the Syrian government in the right direction, stressing that neglecting Syria would be a costly strategic mistake.
Syria Still Has Chemical Weapons
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad has not eliminated the threat of chemical weapons in Syria, Foreign Affairs reported.
Despite international efforts to dismantle Assad’s chemical arsenal during the civil war, significant quantities of dangerous materials, including sarin, VX, and sulfur mustard, remain unaccounted for. While Syria destroyed much of its declared stockpile under the supervision of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) after 2013, Assad’s regime likely retained undeclared weapons and worked to reconstitute its chemical weapons program. This legacy now poses a critical challenge to Syria’s new leadership and the international community.
The risk of proliferation is acute. Unsecured chemical stockpiles could fall into the hands of insurgents, terrorist groups like ISIS, or rogue actors from Assad’s loyalist ranks. Compounding this is the availability of expertise from Syria’s chemical weapons program, as hundreds of scientists and engineers trained in chemical warfare may now be recruited by hostile states or extremist organizations. The potential for these weapons or expertise to spread raises alarm across the region and beyond.
International efforts are essential to address this threat. The OPCW has played a central role in uncovering the extent of Assad’s chemical program, forcing the regime to modify its declarations multiple times. However, the organization’s work is incomplete, and large quantities of chemical agents and munitions remain unresolved. The new Syrian government must cooperate fully with the OPCW, allowing inspections and verifying the destruction of any remaining weapons and production facilities. This process will require increased resources for the OPCW, including funding, specialized equipment, and trained personnel.
Accountability is another crucial aspect. The fall of Assad opens the door to prosecuting those responsible for chemical attacks, including former regime officials and military officers. Newly accessible documents and evidence from Assad’s government should be used to support these prosecutions. Bringing the perpetrators to justice would not only provide a measure of accountability for victims but also send a clear message that the use of chemical weapons will not go unpunished.
Putin plans to meet Bashar al-Assad, says Russia not defeated in Syria
President Vladimir Putin says Russia has not been defeated in Syria after rebel groups ousted his ally and longtime leader, Bashar al-Assad, earlier this month, Al-Jazeera reported.
In his first public comments on the subject on Thursday, Putin said he had not yet met the former Syrian ruler who fled to the Russian capital, but that he “will definitely talk to him” and planned to meet him in Moscow.
He mentioned he would ask al-Assad about the fate of missing United States reporter Austin Tice, whose release was described by the White House as a “top priority”.
Speaking at his annual end-of-the-year news conference, Putin also dismissed claims that Russia, which intervened in Syria in 2015 and turned the tide of the civil war there in al-Assad’s favour, had suffered a loss with the fall of the former regime.
“You want to present what is happening in Syria as a defeat for Russia,” Putin said. “I assure you it is not … we have achieved our goals.”
He said Russia intervened in Syria to “prevent a terrorist enclave from being created there” and that “it is not for nothing that today many European countries and the United States want to establish relations with them [Syria’s new rulers]”.
Netanyahu says Israeli troops will occupy a buffer zone inside Syria for the foreseeable future
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israeli forces will stay in a buffer zone on the Syrian border, seized after the ouster of Syria’s President Bashar Assad, until another arrangement is in place “that ensures Israel’s security,” AP reported.
Netanyahu made the comments from the summit of Mount Hermon — the highest peak in the area — inside Syria, about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the border with the Israel-held Golan Heights.
It appeared to be the first time a sitting Israeli leader had set foot that far into Syria. Netanyahu said he had been on the same mountaintop 53 years ago as a soldier, but the summit’s importance to Israel’s security has only increased given recent events.
“We will stay … until another arrangement is found that ensures Israel’s security,” said Netanyahu who had travelled to the buffer zone on Tuesday with Defense Minister Israel Katz.
Katz said he instructed the Israeli military to quickly establish a presence, including fortifications, in anticipation of what could be an extended stay in the area. “The summit of the Hermon is the eyes of the state of Israel to identify our enemies who are nearby and far away,” he said.
Syria not a threat to world, rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa tells BBC
The de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has said the country is exhausted by war and is not a threat to its neighbours or to the West.
In an interview with the BBC in Damascus, he called for sanctions on Syria to be lifted.
“Now, after all that has happened, sanctions must be lifted because they were targeted at the old regime. The victim and the oppressor should not be treated in the same way,” he said.
Sharaa led the lightning offensive that toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime less than two weeks ago. He is the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant group in the rebel alliance, and was previously known by his nom de guerre of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
He said HTS should be de-listed as a terrorist organization. It is designated as one by the UN, US, EU and UK, among many others, as it started as a splinter group of al-Qaeda, which it broke away from in 2016. Sharaa said HTS was not a terrorist group. They did not target civilians or civilian areas, he said. In fact, they considered themselves to be victims of the crimes of the Assad regime. He denied that he wanted to turn Syria into a version of Afghanistan. Sharaa said the countries were very different, with different traditions. Afghanistan was a tribal society. In Syria, he said, there was a different mindset. He said he believed in education for women. “We’ve had universities in Idlib for more than eight years,” Sharaa said, referring to Syria’s north-western province that has been held by rebels since 2011. “I think the percentage of women in universities is more than 60%.”
And when asked whether the consumption of alcohol would be allowed, Sharaa said: “There are many things I just don’t have the right to talk about because they are legal issues.” He added that there would be a “Syrian committee of legal experts to write a constitution. They will decide. And any ruler or president will have to follow the law”. Sharaa was relaxed throughout the interview, wearing civilian clothes, and tried to offer reassurance to all those who believe his group has not broken with its extremist past. Many Syrians do not believe him.
Turkish FM denies Trump’s claim of ‘unfriendly takeover’ by Turkiye in Syria
Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has denied a claim by incoming United States President Donald Trump that the toppling of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was an “unfriendly takeover” by Turkey.
In remarks apparently praising Ankara, Trump told a news conference earlier this week that Turkey was “very smart” and had carried out “an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost” in Syria.
In an interview with Al Jazeera broadcast on Wednesday, the Turkish foreign minister said it would be “a grave mistake” to describe the current events in Syria as a takeover by Turkey.
“For Syrian people, it is not a takeover. I think if there is any takeover, it’s the will of the Syrian people which is taking over now,” Fidan said.
The foreign minister also said the “last thing” that Turkey wants is to be seen as the regional power that has final control of Syria, pointing to a culture of domination that had brought ruin to the region.
“Well, I think that would be the last thing that we want to see because we are drawing huge lessons from what’s been happening in our region, because the domination culture itself has destroyed our region,” Fidan said. “Not Turkish domination, not Iranian domination, not Arab domination, but cooperation should be essential,” he said.
New details of notorious Captagon drug trade exposed with the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime
In a remote corner outside Damascus, Syria, a now abandoned potato chip factory reveals one of the many dark but open secrets of the ousted regime of Bashar al-Assad.
A CBS News team gained access to the site, finding a storeroom lined with hydrochloric acid and acetic acid on an industrial scale, which are precursor chemicals needed to make Captagon, one of the most popular street drugs in the Middle East and beyond.
Ahmed Abu Yakin is with Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, one of the main groups in charge of the country after Assad fled on Dec. 8. Yakin says this massive underground stash of Captagon was found just days after the rebel group’s takeover. The pills are stuffed into large stacks of household volt regulator kits ready for shipment.
Often referred to as “poor man’s cocaine,” Captagon is a highly addictive amphetamine-type stimulant.
“We feel bad for the young people who were addicted to it,” Yakin said. “The Assad regime was destroying a generation and couldn’t care less. They only cared about making money.”
And that money is staggering. Analysts estimate the Assad regime raked in $5 billion per year from the trade, dwarfing Syria’s official budget and making it a vital lifeline for the bankrupted state. The drug costs just pennies to make but can sell for up to $20 for a single tablet. The haul seen at the abandoned factory is potentially worth tens of millions of dollars.
For years, neighbouring countries accused Assad’s Syria of being the world’s main supplier of the illegal drug. In March 2023, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned several Syrians for their alleged involvement in the “dangerous amphetamine,” including two of Assad’s cousins.
“Syria has become a global leader in the production of the highly addictive Captagon, much of which is trafficked through Lebanon,” said Andrea Gacki at the time, who was then-director of the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. “With our allies, we will hold accountable those who support Bashar al-Assad’s regime with illicit drug revenue and other financial means that enable the regime’s continued repression of the Syrian people.”
Now, his wildly lucrative drug business appears to have been crushed, along with his brutal and corrupt regime. For Yakin, Captagon has no place in Syria’s future.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
