After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, many Western news outlets published articles about the future governance of the country. The Syrian Observer has prepared a selection.
How Will the Rebels Rule?
The New York Times published an in-depth report titled “How Will the Rebels Rule?” that examines the governance model and future prospects of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel group that recently led the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria.
The report details how HTS, which has administered Idlib Province in northern Syria since 2017, developed a pragmatic governance structure, balancing its Islamist roots with a need for functionality. Known for its adaptability, the group created the Syrian Salvation Government, a civilian authority with 11 ministries, to govern Idlib while maintaining overall control through a disciplined militia.
Key Governance Strategies in Idlib:
Taxation and Revenue Generation: HTS imposed taxes on goods, services, and enterprises, including olive oil production, border crossings, and construction. The group also monopolized utilities like fuel, electricity, and water, generating significant revenue—an estimated $15 million per month from customs duties at the Bab al-Hawa border crossing alone.
Civil Services: The administration provided public services such as education, garbage collection, and telecom networks. Private enterprises were allowed to operate alongside HTS-linked businesses, signaling a limited tolerance for economic competition.
Internal Security: HTS established a robust internal security force to confront rival factions and dissent, often leading to protests against authoritarian practices and harsh prison conditions.
Moderate Islamist Practices: While enforcing conservative Islamic principles, HTS avoided the brutal tactics of extremist groups like the Islamic State. Alcohol sales were banned, but drinking and smoking were largely tolerated. Educational initiatives included segregated schools and free Quranic institutions that combined religious and secular subjects.
Military Evolution:
Under the leadership of Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, HTS transformed its militia into a structured military force. Key developments included:
The establishment of a Military College in 2021, which professionalized its fighters and implemented Western-style military doctrines.
Acquisition of weapons through battles, corrupt regime officers, and limited Turkish support, as well as the development of homemade armored vehicles and drones.
A centralized command structure with specialized brigades for infantry, mortars, and other functions.
HTS’s disciplined military operations and strategic leadership were instrumental in its advance toward Damascus, accompanied by speeches focused on reclaiming Syria rather than creating an Islamic state.
Challenges of Scaling Governance Nationally:
As HTS seeks to expand its control beyond Idlib, questions loom about whether it can replicate its governance model on a national scale. Experts note that its tight decision-making process, reliant on leader consultation, may be effective in a small region like Idlib but could prove inefficient across a larger, more diverse country.
Adaptability and Controversies:
The group’s shift from jihadist extremism to pragmatic governance has earned it a reputation for adaptability in conflict economics. This “strategic rebranding” allowed HTS to move away from reliance on foreign donors to self-sustaining revenue through taxation and monopolized services. Despite its moderation, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., UN, and others, which limits overt international support.
Outlook and Internal Tensions:
HTS faces ongoing internal struggles between hard-line and pragmatic factions. While it has sidelined many extremist elements, maintaining discipline and public order remains a challenge. Leaders have expressed hope for continued cooperation with local communities and emphasized priorities such as resisting normalization with Israel and fostering stability.
Humanitarian and Demographic Context:
Idlib, once home to 1.5 million people, now hosts 3.5 million residents, including displaced Syrians. HTS has worked to integrate diverse communities, often leaving local authorities in place in areas with religious minorities, reflecting a departure from the more draconian policies of groups like ISIS.
The report concludes with insights from experts who view HTS as a complex organization, blending ideological goals with practical governance. Its future success, both militarily and administratively, hinges on its ability to navigate internal tensions, gain broader legitimacy, and address Syria’s deep economic and social challenges.
U.S., Turkey and others set out vision for ‘Syrian-led’ government transition
The United States, Turkey and other Mideast and Western powers issued a statement setting out their hopes for Syria’s future as they adjust to the country’s new Islamist rulers after Bashar al-Assad’s fall, The Washington Post reported.
“The transitional political process must be Syrian-led and Syrian-owned” and “produce an inclusive, non-sectarian and representative government,” the statement said, adding that the countries affirmed their “full support for Syria’s unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
Turkey, which previously supported Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel group that led the assault that toppled Assad last week, has emerged as the outside power with the strongest hand in steering the country’s political transition.
The leader of HTS condemned for the first time Israel’s incursion into Syrian territory and said Syria’s new rulers were not interested in a conflict.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, told Syria TV that Israel “clearly crossed the lines of engagement,” risking an unwarranted escalation. Israeli officials have characterized the advance as a measure to prevent rebels or militias from using abandoned military equipment to attack Israel.
One week into a new Syria, rebels aim for normalcy and Syrians vow not to be silent again
The Associated Press published a lengthy article, detailing the initial transformation in Syria following the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
The report captures the charged atmosphere in Damascus, where a blend of hope, apprehension, and resilience characterizes a country grappling with newfound freedom after five decades of Assad family rule. The rebel forces, primarily led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are attempting to restore order while addressing the public’s pent-up grievances and fears.
Transition Amid Chaos
The fall of Assad has ushered in a precarious period. Rebels, including figures like Maj. Hamza al-Ahmed, are tasked with maintaining order and rebuilding institutions while facing a wary populace. At Damascus International Airport, employees shared grievances they had long suppressed, revealing years of repression and favoritism under the Assad regime. Al-Ahmed reassured them, emphasizing cooperation in rebuilding Syria, but many, like engineer Osama Najm, vowed, “We will not be silent about anything wrong again.”
While the transition has been relatively smooth, with minimal reports of revenge killings or sectarian violence, the challenges are immense. The country remains broken—economically devastated, socially fractured, and deeply isolated. Thousands of detainees are still missing, and institutions are riddled with corruption.
Imposing Order in Damascus
The rebels aim to replicate their governance model from Idlib, where HTS had established a functional “salvation government.” However, scaling this model to a major urban center like Damascus is daunting. Rebel police, numbering around 4,000, are stretched thin, handling minor thefts and disputes while promising to restart courts and public services.
The insurgents also face skepticism from Damascus residents. HTS, which has renounced its al-Qaida ties, pledges pluralism and tolerance, but its fighters’ conservative, provincial backgrounds and Islamist slogans on uniforms raise concerns. Some residents, like Hani Zia from Daraa, express fears of marginalization and revenge killings, despite the rebels’ reassurances. “With all due respect to those who sacrificed, we all sacrificed,” Zia said.
A Shifting Social Landscape
The atmosphere in Damascus is transforming. Celebratory gunfire, initially chaotic, was curbed as HTS imposed a nighttime curfew to restore order. By the next day, life began to normalize. Cafes in the Christian quarter resumed serving alcohol—openly in some places and discreetly in others—testing the rebels’ tolerance. In one instance, rebel police arrested a gunman harassing a liquor store, signaling a commitment to maintaining public order.
Public sentiment is mixed. While some, like theater teacher Salem Hajjo, appreciate the rebels’ organizational skills, others remain cautious. “The fear is gone,” Hajjo said. “The rest is up to us.”
Confronting Syria’s Dark Past
The collapse of Assad’s regime has triggered a wave of reckoning. Thousands of Syrians flocked to infamous detention centers like Saydnaya prison, searching for loved ones who disappeared years ago. For many, the search yielded no answers, leaving unresolved grief. Yet, this collective mourning has also fostered unity, with rebels and civilians sharing the same halls that once symbolized terror.
Economic and Administrative Struggles
While some prices dropped after the elimination of bribes and customs fees, other essentials, like fuel, became scarcer, causing widespread blackouts and rising transportation costs. Officials are working to reopen the airport, but the process is slow. Maintenance crews have begun inspecting planes, and cleaners are clearing debris left from looting during the regime’s fall.
One cleaner, Murad, earning just $15 a month to support six children, voiced a sentiment shared by many Syrians: “We need a long time to clean this up.”
A Fragile Hope
The HTS-led transitional government has called on refugees to return and pledged to reform security forces, vetting out those complicit in past atrocities. Streets are now plastered with revolutionary flags and posters commemorating activists killed during the Assad era. State media, which once glorified Assad, now broadcasts revolutionary songs and declarations from the new administration.
Despite uncertainty, Syrians are determined not to let fear define their future. This fragile hope, tempered by the enormity of the challenges ahead, defines the mood in a country finally free from Assad’s grip. As Najm, the airport engineer, put it, “The new path will have challenges… but we will not be silent again.”
Syria After Assad
The New Yorker published an article titled “Syria After Assad” by Robin Wright, exploring the rapid and unexpected transformation in Syria following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad and the scramble to shape the nation’s future.
A Tumultuous Transition
On December 7, envoys from seven nations, including Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, met in Doha to address Syria’s rapidly changing political landscape. Rebels were on the verge of capturing Damascus after a swift offensive, and by dawn, Assad had fled to Russia, ending his family’s five-decade rule. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed shock at the rapid developments, particularly the Syrian Army’s inability to mount a defense.
The abrupt power shift has thrown Syria—a geostrategic linchpin in the Middle East—into a precarious state, with fears that unresolved ethnic, sectarian, and political rivalries could ignite further conflict. The U.N.’s Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, warned of a potential “Libya scenario,” where competing factions could plunge the country into chaos.
The Role of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
The Sunni Islamist militia HTS, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammed al-Jolani), spearheaded the rebellion. Jolani, who has distanced himself from his al-Qaida and ISIS ties, now emphasizes governance and reconciliation. HTS quickly established a transitional government and appointed Mohammed al-Bashir, an experienced administrator from Idlib, as interim Prime Minister. Despite these efforts, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other nations, complicating international relations and economic support.
Jolani’s rhetoric centers on avoiding the mistakes of Iraq’s post-war governance, vowing to preserve Syria’s institutions while fostering equality among ethnic and religious groups. However, skepticism persists, especially given HTS’s Islamist origins and Jolani’s $10 million U.S. bounty.
Regional and International Stakes
The fall of Assad has realigned power dynamics across the Middle East:
Turkey: The primary backer of HTS, Turkey emerges as a regional winner, advocating for an inclusive government and non-sectarian policies.
Iran and Russia: Longtime Assad supporters are now sidelined, with Iran withdrawing its diplomats from Syria.
Israel: In the power vacuum, Israel seized 150 square miles of the Golan Heights and launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military assets. Prime Minister Netanyahu proclaimed these actions as part of a broader strategy to reshape the region.
U.S.: Washington expressed willingness to recognize a credible and inclusive Syrian government but continues to enforce crippling sanctions on the country. Additionally, U.S. forces conducted dozens of airstrikes to prevent ISIS from exploiting the chaos.
Challenges Ahead
Syria faces monumental hurdles, including:
Economic Collapse: With millions displaced and infrastructure devastated, the country’s economy is on the brink. Inflation, unemployment, and poverty are widespread.
Displaced Populations: The transitional government has called for Syrian refugees to return, but instability hinders large-scale reintegration efforts.
Territorial Fragmentation: Six political and ethnic factions claim control over various regions, while Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) hold a third of Syria. Tensions between Turkey and the U.S.-backed SDF remain high.
Uncertain Future
The transitional government, guided by U.N. Resolution 2254, is tasked with drafting a new constitution and organizing free elections within 18 months. Yet, time and resources are scarce. Sawsan Abou Zainedin, leader of the civil society group Madaniya, acknowledged the need for patience, warning, “We’re all standing on good will, but we can’t stand on good will for long.”
In one symbolic act, rebels burned the coffin of Hafez al-Assad, signaling a clear break from the past. However, the future of Syria hinges on the ability of its leaders to navigate a fractured political landscape and address deep societal wounds while balancing competing regional and international interests.
Mother of Austin Tice says discovery of missing American found in Syria feels like a ‘rehearsal’ for when he is found
Debra Tice, the mother of journalist Austin Tice, who has been missing since he was detained in Syria in 2012, told NBC News‘ “Meet the Press” on Sunday that seeing another missing American, Travis Timmerman, found in Damascus was “almost like having a rehearsal … of what it’s going to really feel like when it is Austin walking free.”
Despite initial reports on Wednesday that the American found in Damascus might be Austin Tice, Debra Tice said she knew instantly it wasn’t her son.
“My oldest daughter came into my room at 4:25, and said, ‘Mom, you know, we have this video. You need to look at it. We don’t think it’s Austin, but a lot of people think it’s Austin, so we want you to look and see if it’s Austin,'” Debra Tice recalled.
She added, “I took a glance and I said, ‘No, that is not Austin.'”
She described the number of people who reached out to the Tice family that day with congratulatory messages, believing that Timmerman was Austin Tice.
“It’s almost like having a rehearsal, you know? Just an inkling of what it’s going to really feel like when it is Austin walking free,” Debra Tice told moderator Kristen Welker.
