Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi’s recent visit to Damascus and Ankara has drawn attention to the intricate and intertwined struggles between key regional and international powers vying for influence in Syria. Amid unprecedented military escalation in northern Syria and political realignments that could reshape the region’s dynamics, Araqchi’s visit is widely interpreted as an Iranian attempt to reassert its regional role. However, differing perspectives reveal a collision of interests that underscores the complexity of the Syrian conflict.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Araqchi traveled to Damascus on Sunday for discussions with Syrian government officials before heading to Ankara to consult with Turkish authorities on recent developments in northern Syria. The statement also hinted at a broader regional tour to engage with multiple countries on pressing issues, particularly the situation in Syria.
A Regime in Unprecedented Weakness
Araqchi’s visit comes at a time when the Syrian regime is reportedly at its weakest. Syrian political analyst Jawdat al-Jiran, based in Germany, stated that while Iran continues to support Damascus, it can no longer provide the robust backing it once offered. As such, this visit may primarily serve as a gesture of moral support rather than one of tangible aid.
The visit coincides with significant military advances by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in their “Deterrence of Aggression” operation. In recent days, HTS forces have captured Aleppo, Idlib, and key towns in Hama’s countryside, including Kafr Nabudah, Latamneh, and Mork. These developments have forced the Syrian government to reinforce its defences around Hama.
Although Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan denied his country’s involvement in the Aleppo conflict, he emphasized that Ankara is taking steps to avoid triggering another wave of migration. However, al-Jiran suggests that Turkish support has been pivotal to the armed factions’ advances, occurring against the backdrop of a diminished Russian presence in the region.
Competing Visions for Influence
Al-Jiran sees Araqchi’s visit as an effort to gauge Iran’s future role in Syria amidst bold Turkish moves that exploit Russia’s waning influence. He notes that the Syrian government’s inability to regain control of significant northern territories has deepened its reliance on external allies, forcing Damascus to reevaluate its strategic partnerships.
Turkish political analyst Hisham Gunay, based in Istanbul, believes Iran’s visit highlights Tehran’s concerns over losing its regional foothold, particularly its supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The armed factions’ advances toward Homs threaten these critical arteries, posing a significant challenge to Iranian ambitions. Gunay also suggests that while Turkey is actively reshaping the conflict’s dynamics by supporting armed factions, its internal contradictions regarding Assad’s regime complicate its strategy.
At the same time, Gunay warns that the absence of a viable alternative to the Assad regime risks creating a power vacuum, potentially enabling extremist groups to gain ground and justifying further international interventions, particularly from Israel.
Iranian-Turkish Rivalry
Iranian President Masoud Bazeshkian addressed parliament, reiterating Iran’s commitment to resolving regional disputes through dialogue. However, Gunay argues that Turkey is leveraging Iran’s weaknesses to bolster its own influence, especially by backing factions that threaten Iranian supply lines to Lebanon.
Iranian analyst Kamil al-Boushoka, a researcher in international law, views the recent developments in northern Syria as a direct challenge to Tehran’s regional strategy. According to al-Boushoka, the Syrian government’s apparent hesitation to fully align with Iran has prompted Tehran to take emergency steps to safeguard its interests. He sees Araqchi’s visit as an attempt to de-escalate tensions with Ankara and mitigate the growing proximity between Damascus and Turkey.
The Limits of Iran’s Strategy
Al-Boushoka notes that Iran is in a defensive posture, seeking to preserve its regional gains amid mounting economic and political pressures. While Araqchi’s visit represents a bid to recalibrate Iran’s regional influence, it may fall short given the rapidly evolving dynamics on the ground.
Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savitt stated that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s reliance on Russia and Iran has cost him control over Aleppo and undermined the peace process outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2254. He emphasized the need for a serious political settlement to address Syria’s enduring crisis.
Araqchi’s visit underscores the deepening complexities of the Syrian conflict, where regional rivalries, international interventions, and a fragile Syrian regime converge to create a volatile and unpredictable landscape. Whether this diplomatic effort will significantly alter the balance of power remains uncertain, but it highlights the ongoing struggle for influence in a fractured Syria.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
