Carnegie Institute published a lengthy paper on the shifting dynamics of Syria’s border regions, analyzing how the ongoing conflict has reshaped these areas and diminished Damascus’s control while highlighting the growing influence of local, regional, and international actors over these strategic zones.
Summary
Syria’s central authorities have lost sovereignty over their border regions, which are being contested by local, regional, and international actors. This will not soon change, making the Syrian crisis almost irresolvable, with potential risks for all sides as parts of Syria potentially face internal implosion, impacting outside actors. Given that no one side can win an absolute victory, a broad solution for Syria lies in bringing its dynamics back to a national framework.
Key Themes
Syria’s conflict has transformed the country’s border regions. Turkey has influence over much of the northern border; Iran has significant influence over the border with Iraq and Jordan, and indirectly, through Hezbollah, over the border with Lebanon; and the United States has outposts of influence along Syria’s northeastern and eastern borders, down to Tanf.
The border regions differ from each other, but all have become autonomous zones through the interactions between local actors and regional states, including allies of Syria’s government. Each has its own economy, security, and even ideology—forming de facto cantons outside Damascus’s control.
Demographics, cross-border economic relations, and security have emerged as the main drivers of this situation. The interaction of these factors continues to shape sociopolitical patterns across Syria’s borderlands.
Findings/Recommendations
The Syrian war has radically reshaped Syria’s demographics. Some 14 million people have left their homes or been forced out, while a new generation has been born into a divided Syrian reality.
The Syrian conflict has reshaped cross-border economic networks while giving rise to new economic centers and actors outside Syrian government control.
In the last decade or so, Syria has seen the establishment of parallel security orders—Turkish, Iranian, and American—each within specific zones of operation or influence.
Because violence persists mainly in border areas, over which regional and international actors have sway, any resolution of the Syrian crisis must address this reality and revive a national Syrian framework.
Paradoxically, Syria’s internationally recognized borders remain intact. The struggle for Syria and the instability this has generated have reinforced a belief among regional countries that these borders must be preserved.
An agreement to restore national authority in an inter-Syrian process would rest on a consensus among main regional powers that Syria must remain united, that no one side can be victorious, and that perennial instability threatens the region.
Wagering on the rationality of regional and international actors may be impossible, but containing Syria’s dynamics indefinitely, without a resolution, may lead to internal implosions that ultimately have regional ramifications.
New Book tells St. Louis family’s Story of Son’s Release From Syrian Captivity
Sam Goodwin’s story of being held captive in Syria for over 60 days is the subject of a new book, “Saving Sam”, co-authored with his family.
Goodwin, who was detained in 2019 while attempting to visit every U.N.-recognized country, was wrongfully suspected of being an American spy by Syrian authorities. His family’s struggle to secure his release, while convincing U.S. officials he wasn’t radicalized or involved with ISIS, is central to the book.
Despite enduring harsh conditions and hearing the torture of others, Goodwin was helped by fellow prisoners, who smuggled messages to his family. His release was ultimately facilitated by General Abbas Ibrahim, the Lebanese Intelligence chief, after diplomacy failed.
Today, Goodwin works with nonprofits advocating for Americans wrongfully detained abroad and emphasizes resilience in the face of adversity.
Do strikes on Syria signal a bolder Netanyahu?
Israeli strikes in Syria overnight on Sunday killed at least 18 people and wounded dozens more. The main target appears to have been a facility reportedly used in the development of chemical weapons, Gazeromedia.com reported.
Israel has not confirmed its involvement, but it has routinely carried out attacks in Syria – targeting Syrian government forces and Iran-backed militias – in recent years. The Jewish state generally does not publicly comment on such operations.
These strikes led to a larger death toll than previous attacks and came in the face of rising tensions between Israel and Iran amid the war in Gaza. Israel has been bracing for an attack from Iran in recent weeks, following the late July assassination of a top Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. It was thought that Iran would respond harshly and swiftly to that attack, but it’s held off so far.
What’s Israel playing at? Israel probably feels somewhat emboldened given the lack of a quick, significant Iranian response to Haniyeh’s assassination — and the Jewish state is likely to continue to take action against threats in the region “where Israel knows that the risk of retaliation is not great,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Omar Monieb.
The strikes also came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces rising domestic calls to secure a cease-fire deal with Hamas to bring hostages home – and they could be an attempt to ease that pressure. They help Netanyahu’s government show that even if it’s “not successful in striking a deal, it is successful in eliminating threats” to Israel elsewhere, says Monieb.
What life is like for a 14-year-old from Syria on her first day of high school in Canada
Mazenah Mouhrat, a 14-year-old Syrian refugee from Homs, Syria, recently embarked on a significant milestone—her first day of high school at Westdale Secondary School in Hamilton, Canada, as reported by CBC. Having immigrated to Canada in October 2023 from Egypt, where she had lived since leaving Syria as a toddler, Mazenah is excited to meet new friends and begin her new life, though she faces the challenges of adapting to a new education system and language.
The transition from Egypt to Canada was swift, with only 15 days between learning about the move and arriving in Canada. Supported by Wesley, a local non-profit, Mazenah and her family navigated their new environment with the organization’s help in securing housing, English classes, and other resources. Despite initially struggling with English, Mazenah worked hard, becoming her family’s designated translator and excelling in school, particularly in math and science.
Mazenah’s move to high school is also bittersweet, as it marks the first time she’ll be separated from her younger sister Leen, who has been her companion at school since childhood. The two are very close, and Leen admits she is nervous about attending a different school. As the oldest of four siblings, Mazenah feels a sense of responsibility for her sisters, particularly for Leen, who will now walk to school alone.
Mazenah is determined to make the most of her education in Canada, with aspirations of becoming a doctor and making her family proud. Her story highlights the resilience of young refugees as they navigate new cultures, languages, and challenges while striving for a brighter future.
Arab Liaison Committee meets in Egypt to discuss Syria
The Arab Liaison Committee held its second meeting today, Tuesday, September 10, following a previous meeting that took place in mid-August 2023, in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, according to Enab Baladi.
The meeting took place on the sidelines of the Arab summit held at the ministerial level today, with the participation of Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad.
The Arab League stated on the X platform that the Arab Ministerial Liaison Committee concerned with following up the situation in Syria held a meeting on the sidelines of the ministerial council meetings at the headquarters of the Arab League. It decided to form a team of experts to study the topics that the committee is following with Syria (referring to the Syrian regime) and to hold its next meeting in Baghdad.
The Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also said on “X” that Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi participated in the committee meeting to reach a comprehensive solution to the Syrian crisis.
During the meeting, there was a discussion about enhancing the Arab role in resolving the Syrian crisis and addressing its political, security, and humanitarian repercussions.
