With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, countries across the globe are closely watching how his administration will address key regional issues, particularly in the Middle East. The situation has intensified following the events of October 7, which saw escalated military operations by Israeli forces in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Trump now faces the formidable challenge of balancing escalating conflicts with efforts to de-escalate the region’s instability.
The Syrian crisis remains one of the region’s most complex issues, extending beyond political disputes to encompass a severe economic blockade. In particular, the sanctions imposed by the Caesar Act during Trump’s previous term have crippled Syria’s economy, hampering Damascus’ ability to recover amid ongoing conflicts. However, the landscape has shifted since Trump’s last presidency: Damascus has returned to the Arab League, and Arab nations, including some in the Gulf, have reopened embassies in Syria’s capital, signalling renewed ties.
One prominent shift between Trump’s first and current terms is the normalization of relations between Syria and several Arab nations. With a more open stance from the Gulf and the Arab League, Damascus aims to leverage these connections to ease its economic struggles. According to Mays Kraidy, a civil society representative on Syria’s Constitutional Committee, Syria’s policy has remained consistent, with any major adjustments likely coming from the U.S. due to evolving regional dynamics. Although lifting the Caesar Act remains challenging, the Gulf’s mediation efforts could help mitigate some economic restrictions, even if the law itself remains intact due to influential lobbying within the U.S. administration.
Potential Gulf Mediation
Analysts suggest that Trump’s close ties to Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could play a significant role in addressing Syria’s economic crisis. Ahmed al-Abdullah, an Omani expert in economic affairs, notes that the Gulf’s strategic relationship with Washington may enable it to mediate for reduced economic pressures on Syria. Key factors, such as Syria’s internal political stability, the shifting regional landscape, and Washington’s willingness to reassess its stance, will likely influence the extent of these diplomatic efforts.
According to al-Abdullah, Gulf countries’ interactions with Iran and Turkey also contribute to broader regional dynamics, potentially paving the way for an international consensus on Syria’s future.
Turkish Rapprochement and Economic Relief
The success of a potential rapprochement with Turkey is another factor that could offer Syria an economic reprieve. Kraidy suggests that economic channels, such as the Abu al-Zindin crossing, function independently of political negotiations with Turkey. Nonetheless, Turkish statements on rapprochement have yet to materialize into action, likely delayed by Turkey’s focus on internal priorities as Washington re-engages with foreign policy.
While Moscow, a steadfast ally of Damascus, may view Trump’s return positively, it appears unlikely that this will shift Russia’s focus back to Syria. Russian researcher Rami Al-Qalyubi explains that Syria has become a lower priority for Moscow, given the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia’s own sanctions-related issues. Russia’s influence over Washington’s policies in Syria, including sanctions, is limited.
While analysts recall Trump’s previous approaches to foreign policy, the unprecedented events of October 7 have reshaped the landscape, likely prompting a fresh strategy within the U.S. administration. As Trump’s cabinet appointees prepare to tackle the region’s complex challenges, it remains to be seen how Washington will navigate the evolving dynamics, regional tensions, and longstanding economic sanctions impacting Syria.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
