The aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s ousting continues to shape Syria’s political and geopolitical landscape. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed American support for a Syrian-led, inclusive political transition, emphasizing the need for governance that respects human rights and international norms. Meanwhile, Israel has escalated its military operations in Syria, targeting naval and strategic assets to neutralize threats and prevent weapons from falling into extremist hands. Transitional Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir called on Syrian refugees abroad to return, stressing the importance of stability and the reconstruction of public services. In the U.S., lawmakers proposed easing certain sanctions to support Syria’s shattered economy while maintaining restrictions on former regime officials and designated terrorist groups. On the global stage, China faces challenges following Assad’s fall, recalibrating its Middle East strategy as it weighs the risks of instability against opportunities to influence Syria’s reconstruction. As the transitional government begins its work, Syria’s future hangs in a delicate balance, with regional and international actors closely monitoring developments.
U.S. would recognize a Syrian government that comes from inclusive process, Blinken says
The U.S. government would “recognize and fully support” a future Syrian government that results from an inclusive and transparent transition process, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday, outlining a first set of principles regarding the Biden administration’s hopes to influence discussions over Syria’s future after the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad.
In a statement, Blinken called for a “Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition.” He said that the “process should lead to credible, inclusive and nonsectarian governance that meets international standards of transparency and accountability.”
Were the United States to recognize a future Syrian government — and potentially to lift sanctions that have long crimped the country’s economy — it would be a significant boost to Syria’s leaders. The Biden administration is using that promise as leverage at a moment when Syria’s future is deeply uncertain and in an effort to get Middle Eastern nations to do the same. U.S. officials are mindful that Middle Eastern leaders started reintegrating Assad into the Arab League last year in a step that they thought was ill-advised, in part because Assad didn’t have to make concessions in exchange.
Blinken also said that he was seeking “clear commitments to fully respect the rights of minorities, facilitate the flow of humanitarian assistance to all in need, prevent Syria from being used as a base for terrorism or posing a threat to its neighbors, and ensure that any chemical or biological weapons stockpiles are secured and safely destroyed.”
Israel confirms attack on Syrian naval fleet
BBC News reported that Israel has confirmed it carried out attacks on Syria’s naval fleet, as part of its efforts to neutralise military assets in the country after the fall of the Assad regime.
In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said its ships struck the ports at Al-Bayda and Latakia on Monday night, where 15 vessels were docked.
The BBC has verified videos showing blasts at the port of Latakia, with footage appearing to show extensive damage to ships and parts of the port.
The IDF also said its warplanes had conducted more than 350 air strikes on targets across Syria, while moving ground forces into the demilitarised buffer zone between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights.
Earlier, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said it had documented more than 310 strikes by the IDF since the Syrian government was overthrown by rebels on Sunday.
In a statement, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF was aiming to “destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel”.
He added that the operation to destroy the Syrian fleet had been a “great success”.
The IDF said a wide range of targets had been struck – including airfields, military vehicles, anti-aircraft weapons and arms production sites – in the Syrian capital, Damascus, as well as Homs, Tartus and Palmyra.
It also targeted weapon warehouses, ammunition depots and “dozens” of sea-to-sea missiles.
It added that it had done so to prevent them “from falling into the hands of extremists”.
PM al-Bashir calls on Syrians abroad to return
Syria’s new transitional Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir says one of his first goals is to “bring back the millions of Syrian refugees who are abroad”, Al-Jazeera reported.
Israel’s military says it has carried out 480 attacks on Syria in the past 48 hours, destroying 15 naval vessels, anti-aircraft batteries and weapons production sites in several cities.
Al-Bashir says Syrians need “stability and calm” and that he’s working with officials from Bashar al-Assad’s regime to reset public services and institutions.
Syrian opposition fighters say they’ve taken over the northeastern city of Deir Az Zor from Kurdish-led forces.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has promised to rebuild Syria, saying Syrians are “exhausted” after 14 years of war.
Two U.S. lawmakers push for some Syria sanctions relief after Assad’s fall
Reuters exclusively reports that two U.S. congressmen have urged senior American officials to suspend some sanctions on Syria to ease pressure on its shattered economy after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, according to a letter dated Dec. 10 and seen by Reuters.
The move is the latest effort in the West to push for easing sanctions after rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate, swept into Damascus. A British minister said on Monday that Britain could rethink its designation of HTS as a banned organization.
The letter to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was signed by Republican Representative Joe Wilson, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle, who chairs th Free Syria Caucus.
The letter acknowledges the possible extension for five more years of the Caesar sanctions, which apply across Syrian business sectors and to any national dealing with Syria or with Russian and Iranian entities in Syria.
Wilson and Boyle wrote that sanctions denied Assad the resources to sustain his military and ultimately contributed to its collapse – first in the northern city of Aleppo on Nov. 29 and in a string of losses until Damascus was seized on Dec. 8
The lawmakers wrote that while keeping sanctions on former government officials was important, they believed “that other parts of the legislation – such as sectoral sanctions and sanctions related to reconstruction – should be suspended”.
The letter said the U.S. must issue waivers and general licenses to encourage economic development and foreign investment and “build good will” without impacting sanctions on designated terrorist groups.
Al-Assad’s fall in Syria: What’s at stake for China?
Al-Jazeera published a long report arguing that the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a pivotal moment not only for the Middle East but also for China, which had established a strategic partnership with Damascus. Despite not engaging militarily like Russia or Iran, China aligned itself with Assad through diplomatic support, vetoing UN Security Council resolutions critical of his regime, and providing financial investments and aid.
According to the report, China maintained a calculated, non-military approach to its relationship with Syria. Over the years, it used its UNSC veto power multiple times to shield Assad’s government, citing respect for Syria’s sovereignty and criticizing Western sanctions for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Economically, China invested heavily in Syria, especially after Assad’s forces regained control of Aleppo in 2016. Aid levels surged from $500,000 in 2016 to $54 million in 2017, with additional contributions such as power generators and long-term investments in oil and gas. Chinese companies like Sinopec and Sinochem secured multi-billion-dollar deals in Syria’s energy sector.
China viewed Syria as a crucial node in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), integrating it into global trade and infrastructure networks. However, secondary U.S. sanctions have slowed Chinese investments, and some projects have been divested. Nevertheless, China remains Syria’s third-largest source of imports, highlighting its economic engagement.
The abrupt fall of Assad poses significant challenges for China. While the HTS-led opposition government is unlikely to align closely with Beijing, China’s approach to pragmatically engaging with new regimes, as demonstrated in its dealings with the Taliban in Afghanistan, suggests it may seek to establish relations with Syria’s new leadership. This strategy could include leveraging its infrastructure expertise for reconstruction efforts in the war-torn country.
However, Assad’s ouster complicates China’s broader Middle East ambitions, including its growing role as a mediator, as seen in its brokering of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement and efforts to unify Palestinian factions. The potential for regional instability and conflict spillover following Assad’s fall presents a significant risk to China’s economic and geopolitical interests.
While China may pursue calibrated investments in Syria under new leadership, it is likely to adopt a cautious approach, weighing risks of instability against potential opportunities for influence. Assad’s fall underscores the fragile nature of China’s partnerships in volatile regions, challenging its long-term aspirations in the Middle East as both an economic and strategic player.
