An American researcher wrote an alarming article in National Security Journal, warning that Syria is descending into chaos under its new Islamist government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate that ousted President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow at the Randolph Bourne Institute and contributing editor at The American Conservative and The National Interest, described escalating violence and persecution of ethnic and religious minorities, including Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Kurds, as evidence of Syria’s collapse.
Carpenter reported that HTS, under Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, has executed political opponents without due process and launched deadly offensives, killing over 2,500 civilians since March 2025. A March offensive targeted Alawite communities near the Mediterranean coast, claiming 1,500 lives, while April attacks on Christians and Druze caused hundreds of deaths. Extremist allies have also bombed civilian targets, including churches. A summer offensive, coordinated with Sunni Bedouin militias, killed over 1,000, mostly Druze, prompting Israeli airstrikes to protect the Druze.
The researcher criticized U.S. policy for backing Sunni insurgents since 2011, driven by opposition to Assad’s ties with Iran and Russia, despite warnings of empowering radicals. This policy, Carpenter argued, fueled a civil war that killed over 600,000 and displaced 13 million, culminating in HTS’s rise. He accused Western media, like CBS’s 60 Minutes, of falsely portraying the rebel victory as “liberation,” despite HTS’s terrorist designation until its 2024 triumph.
Carpenter highlighted Turkey and Israel’s territorial ambitions as further destabilizing Syria. Israel’s troop deployments in Druze-majority Suwayda suggest control over southern Syria, while Turkey, with U.S. support, has pressured Kurds to abandon autonomy, securing a northern buffer zone. These rival actions, he warned, risk carving up Syria.
Calling U.S. policy a “horrid failure,” Carpenter urged President Trump to disengage from Syria to avoid exacerbating the humanitarian and geopolitical crisis.
