Sources close to the Russian Foreign Ministry have confirmed that there is dissatisfaction within Russia regarding the Syrian regime. This dissatisfaction stems from the regime’s inadequate response to Moscow’s initiative for rapprochement with Turkey.
According to sources speaking to the Syria TV website, Russia perceives that Iran is obstructing its initiative. Tehran’s absence from the mediation efforts led by Moscow is seen as a factor in this obstruction. Despite this, Russia is cautious about escalating tensions with Iran due to their close alliance against the United States and the West, a relationship that has been particularly evident during the Russian-Ukrainian war with Iran’s provision of drones to Russia.
Russian initiative
From the outset, the Syrian regime rejected the approach of opening border crossings and did not allow trucks from the Abu al-Zindeen crossing to enter areas under its control, despite the process being sponsored by Russia and Turkey.
The regime informed the Russian side that it would not agree to the trade exchange between Ankara and Moscow unless it obtained a timetable for the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory. The sources added that the regime believes any approval to open crossings along the contact lines would legitimize the Turkish forces’ presence and fears that this could lead to a later displacement of Syrian borders and former official border crossings.
Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian president’s special envoy for the Middle East and African countries, emphasized the substantial work needed before a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad. He noted the importance of negotiations, including ensuring security on the Syrian-Turkish border, the withdrawal of Turkish forces, combating terrorism, resolving the Kurdish issue, and addressing economic and social development.
Bogdanov’s recent statements to Alaraby TV highlighted the beginning of the process and the importance of its continuation. These statements were preceded by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s comments, which reinforced the relationship with the Syrian opposition and suggested that the Turkish normalization process with the Syrian regime remains stagnant.
The Russian vision for normalization
The Syria TV website has learned from sources with contacts in the Russian Foreign Ministry that Moscow is intensifying its efforts to complete the normalization process. This is driven by the expectation that Donald Trump, the current frontrunner, will win the US presidency. Russia believes that under Trump, US forces will redeploy in northeastern Syria to cut off the Iran-Iraq-Syria corridor. Therefore, Russia seeks high-level coordination with Turkey and the Syrian regime to manage the situation in this region, avoiding a potential Turkish military escalation exploiting an American withdrawal.
According to the sources, Russia is proposing to ensure the security of the Turkish border by deploying military police in the border areas, maintaining Turkish observation points, and then facilitating a gradual withdrawal of Turkish forces after securing these areas. This plan also involves giving a significant role to what Russia considers the institutions of the Syrian civil state, including local police. Throughout these discussions, Russia emphasizes the importance of preserving state institutions and preventing their disintegration, regardless of the personnel within them.
Russia supports expanding the scope of the Astana talks so that the guarantor countries can oversee the establishment of economic zones to improve the economic situation in all Syrian regions and facilitate trade exchanges between different areas of influence. This approach comes in light of the failure to open border crossings due to political and security obstacles, as seen in the unsuccessful attempt to reopen the Abu al-Zindeen crossing east of Aleppo in late June.
The current complex situation is likely to persist as long as there are no significant developments in the Syrian issue. Potential changes include the redeployment of US forces or new Turkish military operations to secure border sites, coordinated jointly with Moscow and Ankara rather than unilaterally, as previously occurred in Afrin. The ongoing conflict of interest and divergent visions among international parties active in Syria, coupled with the Syrian regime’s intransigence and reluctance to change its behaviour, further complicate the resolution of the Syrian issue.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
