The last major battles in northern Syria date back to February 2020, when regime forces, buoyed by their recent successes, quickly overran demilitarized zones established under a May 2017 agreement between Turkey, Russia, and Iran. These zones, known as de-escalation zones, were meant to halt the fighting, but the regime and its allies ignored the agreement, pushing deep into international highways connecting Aleppo to Damascus and Latakia. Eventually, the regime shifted focus to securing these roads, a strategy that came at the cost of massive waves of displacement. It established fortified positions along new lines of contact, fostering a false sense of security—one that was shattered last Wednesday when opposition forces launched a large-scale surprise attack, forcing regime troops to flee. In their haste, they left behind weapons, ammunition, and even some officers who failed to wake despite the sound of heavy bombardment and were easily captured.
Little resistance
The advancing opposition forces encountered little resistance on their way to Aleppo, finding abandoned positions, stockpiles of military equipment, and stranded soldiers who had either delayed or neglected to retreat. By the end of the third day, they had seized the international highway stretching from Saraqib to Aleppo, effectively isolating Aleppo from Damascus. Any regime reinforcements or supplies would now have to take a lengthy detour through Khanaser, Safira, and Tal Aran. The disorganized retreat of regime forces around Aleppo and its suburbs suggests they may not be able to mount a counteroffensive soon, as they have lost significant equipment, ammunition, and strategic positions that are difficult to replace quickly.
Adding to the regime’s woes is the fear of new frontlines opening in the Badia region, which is poised for action. These challenges compel the regime to pause and reassess its strategy with its allies, particularly Iran. Tehran is facing its own crises, including a clear setback in Lebanon, internal restrictions on its capabilities, and painful strikes on its assets inside Syria, all of which have diminished its ability to respond effectively.
The calculated nature of the opposition attack reflects a well-thought-out strategy. The timing was particularly notable, as it coincided with the announcement of a ceasefire in Lebanon, allowing attention to shift to Syria. The attack also took advantage of Iran’s loosening grip on Syria’s interior and Lebanon, Russia’s entanglement in Ukraine, and Turkey’s tacit tolerance—if not active guidance—of the operation. These factors collectively bolstered the opposition’s momentum and may provide sustained advantages in the long term.
Despite the extremist character of the factions governing northern Syria, they continue to enjoy a degree of acceptance among many Syrians, including refugees in neighbouring countries. This acceptance may encourage some to return to the newly controlled areas in Aleppo and its countryside, particularly those disillusioned by the lack of opportunities or pathways to Europe. Should this occur, the return of a significant number of Syrians could mark the beginning of profound changes in a country whose geopolitical significance far exceeds its size.
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This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
