French sources have described the recent Paris-hosted Conference to Support Syria—which brought together Arab and European nations, Turkey, the United States, Japan, and various regional and international organizations—as a success. This assessment is based on three key factors: the broad participation secured by the organizers, the agreement on a collective statement signed by all attendees except the United States, and the inclusion of Syria’s transitional authority, represented by Foreign Minister Assaad al-Shibani, in such an international gathering for the first time.
Paris considers the conference an extension of the Aqaba Conference series, previously hosted by Jordan and later by Saudi Arabia. French officials acknowledge that complete unanimity on the final declaration was unlikely from the outset. Anticipating possible dissent, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot had warned attendees in his opening remarks that, should a consensus prove unattainable, he would release a statement in his own name as president of the conference.
France views the event’s success not only in terms of participation but also in the substance of the declaration, which went beyond broad principles to outline specific measures of international support for Syria. The statement also laid out a roadmap of expectations for the Syrian authorities, making continued assistance conditional on their adherence to specified commitments.
Washington’s Refusal to Sign: Reservations Over Syria’s New Leadership
The United States’ decision not to sign the declaration did not come as a surprise to Paris. According to French sources, Washington’s reluctance stems from its stance on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which effectively governs Syria under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. Since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime on December 8, Washington has been assessing its policy toward the new authorities and has not yet finalized its approach.
From the French perspective, the US administration’s hesitation is not necessarily about the content of the declaration but rather its timing. Washington remains undecided on its long-term stance toward the new Syrian government and, as a result, is unwilling to commit to policies that have not yet been approved at the national level.
Another significant factor is Washington’s difficulty in engaging with al-Sharaa, given that both he and HTS remain under US sanctions and are classified as a terrorist organization. The same applies to the European Union, which still considers HTS a terrorist group, even as its leadership has now assumed de facto control of Syria.
The Broader Western Stance: Caution, Skepticism, and Strategic Patience
Western governments are understandably cautious about fully endorsing the new Syrian leadership. Many view the commitments made by the transitional authority as verbal assurances rather than concrete actions, and they demand more tangible steps before granting full recognition and support.
However, France appears more optimistic about the developments in Syria. French officials argue that critics should allow the new authorities more time to demonstrate their intentions, noting that the transitional government has only been in place for two months. They also acknowledge the enormity of the tasks at hand—including rebuilding the army, security institutions, and administrative structures—which will require significant time and resources.
This perspective has led France and other concerned nations to adopt an approach of “structured engagement,” whereby international support is used as an incentive to guide the new Syrian leadership toward expected reforms and commitments.
Macron’s Initiative: Strengthening Syria’s Stability
French President Emmanuel Macron took a personal role in elevating the significance of the conference, delivering a closing speech in which he outlined France’s commitments to Syria. His pledges included:
- Security assistance to combat terrorism.
- Encouraging other nations to ease sanctions on Syria.
- Ensuring international support does not overwhelm the new authorities with excessive demands.
Macron’s vision centers on the emergence of a unified, sovereign Syria that respects sectarian and ethnic diversity, secures its borders, eliminates foreign interventions, and contributes to regional stability by continuing its fight against terrorism.
The European Position: A Gradual Approach to Sanctions Relief
While European nations recognize that Syria’s economic recovery depends on the lifting of sanctions and substantial foreign aid, they have opted for a gradual easing of restrictions rather than immediate relief. This measured approach is reflected in the EU’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria’s oil and transportation sectors, though these policies have yet to be fully implemented due to ongoing legal and procedural challenges.
Paris has positioned itself as the most proactive Western country in supporting the new Syrian government. This is evident in its:
- Invitation for Ahmad al-Sharaa to make an official visit—the first such invitation from a Western capital.
- Plans to reopen the French embassy in Damascus in the near future.
The West’s Greatest Concern: Preventing Syria’s Descent into Chaos
One of the primary motivations behind Western engagement with the new Syrian authorities is the fear of instability similar to what unfolded in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein and in Libya following Gaddafi’s overthrow. The possibility of Syria descending into chaos remains a serious concern, particularly given reports of extrajudicial killings and internal power struggles.
Despite these concerns, most Western and regional actors still believe that Syria’s transition is proceeding within manageable limits. However, their greatest fear remains the resurgence of the Islamic State (IS), which could exploit the ongoing political shift to regain a foothold.
Paris’ Counterterrorism Strategy: Preventing an IS Resurgence
To mitigate this risk, France, along with other European nations, is urging Syria’s new leadership to:
- Prioritize counterterrorism efforts, with a specific focus on defeating IS.
- Cooperate with Iraq in cross-border security operations.
Additionally, Paris has offered its expertise and resources to support these counterterrorism efforts. The International Coalition Against IS, which led operations against the group until its territorial defeat in 2019, remains operational and could be reactivated to prevent IS from regrouping.
A potential game-changer in US-Syria relations could be if the new Syrian government formally requests Washington’s assistance in combating IS. Such a move might encourage the Biden administration to reconsider its position on engagement with al-Sharaa’s government and accelerate a shift in American policy.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
