In recent years, Syria’s geopolitical landscape has undergone profound shifts, with Washington and Ankara playing decisive roles in reshaping the Middle East’s conflict dynamics. Their military and intelligence coordination has produced strategic changes that have redefined the balance of power in Syria.
Despite this collaboration, key differences remain between the NATO allies—chief among them, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which continues to be the primary stumbling block to a comprehensive agreement between the two nations.
U.S.-Turkish coordination in toppling the regime
The fall of the Syrian regime was the result of a meticulously orchestrated effort between Washington and Ankara. Their coordination set the stage for decisive military campaigns in Aleppo and Damascus, with Israel also playing a crucial supporting role.
Six months before the final military push, Israel intensified airstrikes on Iranian militia positions across Syria, targeting Daraa, Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. While publicly framed as part of Israel’s deterrence strategy against Iran’s military entrenchment, these strikes were, in reality, designed to systematically weaken Iranian forces ahead of the regime’s collapse.
The most decisive blow came on April 1, 2024, when Israel launched a high-profile strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, severely crippling Tehran’s influence in Syria.
Simultaneously, on October 27, 2024, Turkey carried out an aerial offensive against Kurdish PKK positions in northern Syria, aiming to curb its influence and prevent it from exploiting the power vacuum left by the regime’s downfall.
Redrawing the Middle East’s balance of power
The strategic realignment spearheaded by Turkey, the U.S., and Israel—backed by Gulf states and European consultations—has effectively redrawn the region’s power map, creating a new order that has redefined conflict dynamics in Syria.
This transformation was far from haphazard; Washington assigned clear operational roles to each ally:
- Turkey: Provided ground military support, coordinated with Qatar and consulted with Saudi Arabia, financed opposition factions, and supplied intelligence.
- United States: Maintained strict surveillance over the Syria-Iraq border to prevent Iranian reinforcements while issuing firm warnings to Tehran against using Iraqi or Lebanese airspace for arms shipments.
- Israel: Conducted sustained airstrikes to cripple Iranian forces and prevent their re-entrenchment in Syria. Notably, on September 28, 2024, Reuters reported that Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Works and Transport barred an Iranian aircraft from entering its airspace following an Israeli ultimatum to Beirut Airport, warning that any attempt to allow the plane to land would be met with military action.
This episode highlighted the extent of U.S.-Turkish-Israeli coordination in restricting Iran’s regional manoeuvres.
Strategic gains from the tripartite coordination
- Dismantling Iranian Influence in Syria: Tehran was forced to withdraw most of its forces under pressure.
- Restructuring Syria’s Political Power Map: Ankara-backed opposition factions assumed control in the post-regime landscape.
- Forcing Moscow to Recalibrate its Presence: The campaign pressured Russia into negotiating a phased military withdrawal, delivering a major setback to its influence in the Middle East and weakening its strategic foothold near NATO’s Incirlik Air Base.
The core dispute between Washington and Ankara
Despite their successful collaboration in overthrowing the Syrian regime, tensions resurfaced between Washington and Ankara in the aftermath of the conflict, with the SDF issue emerging as the primary obstacle to a full reconciliation between the allies.
Ankara, viewing the SDF as an extension of the PKK, demanded full control over security operations in northern Syria. However, despite its prior coordination with Turkey, the Biden administration opted to postpone military action against the SDF until after the U.S. elections, anticipating a potential shift in policy under a Trump presidency.
Even after Trump’s return to the White House, Washington has continued to delay a decisive move against the SDF, effectively transferring the matter to Paris, which is now using the issue as a bargaining chip to counterbalance its geopolitical losses in Africa.
Future scenarios for the SDF amid ongoing complexities
Several possible scenarios could unfold regarding the future of the SDF issue:
- U.S. Military Realignment in Syria: Maintaining key American bases, such as Al-Tanf and Al-Omar in Hasakah, while adjusting troop deployments.
- Expanding the Adana Agreement: Extending the existing Turkey-Syria security accord to 35 km inside Syrian territory to bolster Turkish control over the border region.
- Israeli Retention of Strategic Influence: Securing Tel Aviv’s military presence in critical areas to prevent Iran’s resurgence in Syria.
U.S.-Turkish-Israeli Strategic Objectives in the Region
With the regime’s collapse, the alliance has shifted its focus toward three primary objectives:
- Blocking Iran from Rebuilding its Militia Network in Syria.
- Forcing Russia to Diminish its Military Presence, particularly in critical strongholds such as Tartus and Hmeimim.
- Ensuring the Stability of Syria’s New Government to prevent pro-Iran or pro-Russia factions from regaining power.
A New regional order
Despite occasional disagreements, the tripartite coordination between Turkey, the U.S., and Israel has proven its ability to reshape the Middle East. This was particularly evident in the resolution of the Gaza crisis, which was brokered through Qatari and Egyptian mediation as part of a broader regional realignment.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi militia issue is moving toward a legal resolution, while the PKK problem appears to be nearing its conclusion through a two-pronged approach:
- Political Settlement: On February 15, 2025, PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan is expected to issue a statement urging his followers to disarm and transition to political engagement. This move will be accompanied by a general amnesty from the Turkish government, signaling the gradual closure of the conflict.
- Military Solution: Following this announcement, Washington is expected to support Ankara in expelling PKK fighters from Syria and Iraq, marking a major shift in U.S. policy on Kurdish militias.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
Syria’s course is now irreversible. The strategic alignment between Turkey, the U.S., and Israel—backed by Gulf nations and European partners—has redrawn the Middle East’s power dynamics, shaping a new regional order that will define the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
