Bashar al-Assad faces a pivotal choice: remain Iran’s ally, opposing Arab nations’ ambitions, or break with Tehran and its militias. Syria’s strategic location between Lebanon and Iraq makes it crucial for Iran’s regional ambitions, particularly supplying Hezbollah and facilitating operations against northern Israel ¹. Assad’s regime appears intent on avoiding entanglement in the Iran-Hezbollah axis, signalling a potential shift away from Iran’s ideological hold.
Iran Reaffirms Alliance with Syria Amid Rumors of Strained Relations and Regional Pressure
Assad’s decision is complicated by internal divisions, militia pressures and regional dynamics. His brother Maher, commander of the Fourth Armored Division, oversees drug trafficking and arms transport operations aligned with Tehran. Iran-backed militias, like Harakat al-Nujaba and Fatemiyoun Brigade, operate within Syria, entrenching Iran’s influence.
The UAE and Jordan have offered significant financial incentives for Assad to sever ties with Iran and Hezbollah. Assad has shown signs of alignment with Arab interests, reducing support for Hezbollah and restricting its movements. However, Israel demands the removal of Iranian militias from Syrian soil and the severance of the critical supply line sustaining Hezbollah’s military efforts.
Assad controls less than half of Syria’s territory, and strong Iranian allegiances among senior military officials complicate his decision-making. The UAE’s reopened embassy in Damascus and Syria’s restored seat in the Arab League suggest a shift in regional dynamics.
Ultimately, Assad’s path is far from simple, wedged between Iran’s entrenched influence and substantial incentives from Arab countries intent on curtailing that influence. Can Assad navigate these competing pressures and forge a new path, or will Syria remain entrenched in regional power struggles?
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
