Raisi’s era was marked by direct pressure on the Syrian regime to repay Iranian debts amounting to about 50 billion dollars, shortly after he took office. Opposition began to form inside and outside Iran, with media outlets emphasizing the need to collect debts from Syria. Iran began to exert pressure by delaying oil shipments to Syria, which caused significant paralysis due to the stoppage of Iranian oil supplies. Now, after Raisi’s death, is this leverage still valid? Or have Tehran’s priorities in the region changed following significant Israeli strikes on Syrian soil, targeting prominent military leaders and accusing the Syrian regime of leaking information to Israel?
Up until the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Tehran did not respond to the Syrian regime’s request to continue supplying fuel, despite repeated diplomatic visits by Faisal al-Mekdad. Only a few modest shipments were sent, with a promise to form joint committees to determine the debt’s value and repayment method. Assad’s bet that Raisi’s tenure would not succeed due to his death was accurate.
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Tehran requested sovereign concessions in exchange for debts, such as treating Iranians in hospitals and scientific institutions as Syrians, and trying Iranian criminals in Iranian courts, similar to the 2015 agreement with Moscow that granted broad military and diplomatic privileges to Russians.
Iran’s ambitions extended beyond debt repayment and aid. The exchange of visits between officials aimed at arranging and scheduling debts concealed deeper intentions. According to international media, Iran sought significant sovereign concessions. Tehran was surprised that Syria resisted these demands, reminiscent of the agreements between Western countries and the Ottoman Empire before its collapse.
Iran aims to establish a direct presence in Syria, no longer content with merely supporting the regime with advisors, factions, and militias. It wants to own land and control public sector institutions such as communications, industry, electricity, trade, and education. Iran seeks broad commercial concessions and investments managed by the Revolutionary Guards to alleviate Western sanctions and finance its regional military arms.
Western diplomatic sources indicate that the Syrian regime signed these agreements under duress but delayed their implementation. Increased pressure from Tehran, using the leverage of stopping oil shipments, and demands from the Iranian ambassador in Damascus, forced the acceleration of the agreements’ implementation.
The period under President Raisi was marked by tense relations between Iran and the Syrian regime. Raisi, an ultra-conservative and strong proponent of Iran’s expansionist agenda, was being groomed to succeed the Supreme Leader. His tenure saw direct Israeli assassination operations against Iranian leaders and the “Axis of Resistance” in Syria.
Iran’s institutional depth is said to enable it to reorganize internally, and its policies are expected to continue through the transitional period. However, regional dynamics are bound to shift, leading to changes in Iran’s foreign policy. The pressure on the Syrian regime may persist, albeit at a slower pace, as it remains a strategic issue for Iran.
Despite the uncertainty, the Syrian regime might experience some relief from Iranian pressure until a new president is elected and political stability returns to Iran. The death of Raisi, a key figure in Khamenei’s political project, both internally and externally, might offer Syria a temporary respite.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
