A recent report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) sheds light on the intentions and perceptions of Syrian refugees residing in neighbouring countries regarding potential return to Syria. The findings reveal a pronounced reluctance to repatriate, with only 18% of respondents indicating plans to return within the next 12 months.
Intentions Vary by Host Country
The UNHCR’s regional survey highlights differing levels of intent to return among Syrian refugees. In Egypt, 29% expressed a desire to go back, compared to 22% in Jordan and 14% in Lebanon. In Iraq, the figure drops to just 4%. These variations reflect the complex interplay between conditions in host countries and refugees’ perceptions of safety and opportunity within Syria.
As of 18 September 2025, the UNHCR estimates that approximately 988,000 Syrian refugees have returned to Syria since 8 December 2024. In addition, around 1.8 million internally displaced Syrians have returned to their original areas, including 972,000 from northern Syria.
Barriers to Return: Security, Infrastructure and Trust
The low percentage of refugees planning to return underscores the persistent challenges within Syria. The report cites ongoing security concerns, inadequate basic services, and a general lack of stability as primary deterrents. Without meaningful progress in reconstruction, transitional justice, and social reconciliation, many refugees remain unwilling to take the risk of returning.
The need for comprehensive political solutions is evident. Rebuilding trust between citizens and the state—alongside guarantees for rights and freedoms—is essential to encouraging voluntary repatriation. In the absence of such measures, many continue to choose the relative safety of exile over the uncertainties of return.
Organised Return Programmes
The UNHCR continues to support voluntary repatriation efforts. On 11 September 2025, 280 refugees returned from Lebanon through a joint initiative with the International Organization for Migration. Similarly, approximately 350 refugees were assisted in returning from Jordan on 17 and 18 September. Since the start of 2025, the UNHCR has directly supported more than 18,000 returnees from Turkey and provided financial assistance to 5,590 families—totalling 22,366 individuals—to aid reintegration.
The agency stresses that all returns are voluntary, with individual counselling provided to ensure refugees are informed of available services in Syria.
Significant Returns from Turkey
In Turkey, the city of Gaziantep has witnessed a notable wave of returns since the fall of the previous Syrian regime on 8 December 2024. Over 150,000 Syrians have departed, reducing their share of the city’s population from 21% to approximately 14%, according to Turkish media. Despite this, 344,105 Syrians remain in the city, according to the Directorate General of Migration Management. Turkish sources indicate that this trend is expected to continue.
Is Syria Ready for Large-Scale Returns?
A report published in August 2025 by The National Interest, authored by Ivar Jansen, argues that a safe return for Syrian refugees remains out of reach, despite some positive developments. While nearly 500,000 Syrians have returned from neighbouring countries, around 6 million remain in exile across the region and Europe. Returnees face formidable obstacles, including sporadic violence, destroyed infrastructure and a lack of basic services.
The ongoing economic crisis and widespread housing shortages further complicate reintegration. Laws introduced under the former Assad regime—such as Decree 66 and Law 10—have led to widespread property confiscations, putting returnees at risk of losing their homes or land. The healthcare system, severely depleted by a shortage of medical personnel and equipment, is struggling to address injuries caused by landmines and remnants of war.
A Path Forward
Jansen’s report concludes that large-scale returns are unlikely without major progress in key areas: genuine security, legal protections for minorities, landmine clearance, and restoration of property rights. Until such conditions are met, limited voluntary returns may continue, but mass repatriation could worsen instability and potentially spark new waves of displacement.
According to UN data, over 2 million refugees and internally displaced persons have returned to their areas since the fall of the Assad regime. However, with 13.5 million Syrians still displaced or in exile—and the majority living below the poverty line—the transitional authorities led by Ahmad al-Sharaa face formidable challenges in rebuilding a nation shattered by war.
Europe, meanwhile, remains cautious of a potential new influx of asylum seekers, driven by Syria’s fragile economic and political situation. The road to recovery and repatriation remains precarious, requiring sustained international efforts to address the root causes of displacement and build a Syria where return is both safe and sustainable.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
