In recent geopolitical developments, the United States has shown little interest in Iraq’s efforts to mediate reconciliation between Syria and Turkey, despite acknowledging the initiative during meetings with Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein. Analysts suggest that successful talks could undermine the US military mission in northeast Syria, where approximately 900 troops are stationed. This disinterest comes amid heightened tensions due to the Gaza conflict and a broader shift in regional dynamics. Meanwhile, Turkey faces criticism for forcibly deporting thousands of Syrian refugees back to northern Syria, raising humanitarian concerns. Additionally, Jordan’s military foiled a drug-smuggling attempt via a drone from Syria. On another front, Turkey and Syria are gradually moving towards potential reconciliation, mediated by Russia, with Turkish President Erdogan and Syrian President Assad possibly meeting soon. However, the normalization process is expected to be slow and fraught with challenges, including the presence of Syrian refugees in Turkey and ongoing military actions in northern Syria.
US shrugs off Baghdad’s bid to broker Turkey-Syria talks
The United States has displayed a marked lack of interest in Iraq’s efforts to mediate a reconciliation between Syria and Turkey, despite formally acknowledging the initiative during recent meetings with Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein.
This indifferent stance, according to MEE, comes amid heightened regional tensions due to the ongoing Gaza conflict. Analysts suggest that successful talks between Syria and Turkey could undermine the US military mission in northeast Syria, where approximately 900 US troops are stationed. These troops, initially deployed to combat the Islamic State (IS), have become a strategic element in countering Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Iranian allies. The potential reconciliation could empower Syria and Turkey to exert pressure on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a key US ally.
The US’s diminishing enforcement of its policy against normalizing relations with Damascus is evident as Assad strengthens ties with Arab nations, including recent diplomatic engagements with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. This shift occurs against the backdrop of Iraq’s emerging role as a regional mediator, having previously facilitated talks between rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iraq’s mediation efforts, led by figures like Falih al-Fayyadh of the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces, align with Tehran’s long-term goal of expelling US forces from Syria.
Turkey, facing domestic pressure over the presence of millions of Syrian refugees and its economic woes, seeks a deal with Assad’s government. However, Assad demands the withdrawal of Turkish military forces from Syria, complicating the reconciliation process. The US’s support for the SDF remains a contentious issue with Turkey, which views the group as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). As regional dynamics evolve, Iraq’s mediation signifies a broader shift where US allies pursue independent diplomatic paths, potentially benefiting Iran while the US’s attention is diverted elsewhere.
Turkey Forcibly Deporting Thousands of Syrians
Turkey has forcibly deported early in July, 3,540 Syrians with temporary protection identity cards to northern Syria, in addition to 840 refugees in the past 7 days, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Friday
“Turkish authorities forcibly detained more than 125 Syrian families, including children and women, in deportation centers in the province of Kayseri, as Ankara is preparing to send them back to Syria,” SOHR said.
It added that on Friday, 120 Syrians were already deported through the Turkish border crossings towards northern Syria.
According to the Observatory, “Turkey is forcibly deporting more than 100 Syrians every day, most of them holding temporary protection ID card (Kimlik), with the aim of settling them in areas under its control in the Euphrates Shield, the Olive Branch and the Peace Spring.
SOHR condemned the “humiliating way and inhumane treatment” by Turkish authorities towards Syrian refugees forcibly being deported back to their country.
It also called on the international community to “assume its responsibilities towards protecting Syrian refugees in Turkey and prevent their deportation under the pretext of sending them to a safe zone.”
The Turkish government said on Friday it was deporting at least seven Syrians for “provocatively” sharing their images while eating bananas on social media after a Turkish citizen complained that he cannot afford bananas while the refugees can, according to Bloomberg.
Three weeks ago, tensions rose between Turks and Syrian refugees after the arrest of a Syrian man who had been accused of harassing a child.
Turkish police then arrested 474 of people during anti-Syrian riots in several cities, damaging businesses and properties belonging to the Syrians.
Jordan’s army shoots down drone carrying drugs from Syria
Jordanian military authorities foiled an attempt to use a drone to smuggle narcotics into the kingdom from Syria, Arab News reported.
A military official on Saturday said that forces shot down the drone inside Jordanian territory.
“Border guard forces in the eastern military region, in coordination with the security services and the Anti-Narcotics Department, detected an attempt by a drone to cross the border illegally from Syrian territory to Jordanian territory,” the statement read.
The seized items were confiscated and transferred to the relevant authorities.
Turkey-Syria rapprochement likely to be gradual: analysts
Turkey and Syria are inching towards a potential reconciliation, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad possibly meeting soon.
However, analysts predict that the normalization process will be gradual due to several complex issues. Initially, Erdogan sought to topple Assad during the Syrian conflict, but as Assad regained territory, Erdogan shifted his approach.
Talks, mediated by Russia since 2022, have seen some progress. Despite Erdogan’s recent statement about inviting Assad for talks, Assad insists on resolving key issues, including Turkish troop withdrawal from Syria. The presence of 3.2 million Syrian refugees in Turkey and ongoing anti-Syrian sentiment are pressing Erdogan to address the situation.
Turkey’s military actions in northern Syria, mainly targeting Kurdish forces, further complicate the reconciliation process. Assad demands the end of Turkish support for groups he labels as terrorists and the withdrawal of Turkish forces. Any rapprochement poses significant risks for Kurdish-led forces in Syria, who fear losing their gains.
Analysts suggest that a transitional arrangement might see Turkey recognizing Assad’s authority in northern Syria while retaining security control, aiming to eventually repatriate Syrian refugees. This delicate process hinges on many factors, including potential shifts in US policy towards Syria.
