Ahmad al-Awda is a pivotal figure in Syria’s post-Assad military and political landscape, particularly in the southern province of Daraa, where his influence has shaped regional dynamics for over a decade. Known for his shifting allegiances, strategic pragmatism, and military autonomy, al-Awda has transitioned from a Free Syrian Army (FSA) commander to a Russian-backed leader and now a key player in the new post-Assad power structure. His role in southern Syria continues to raise questions about his long-term ambitions, his relations with regional and global powers, and the future of the Eighth Brigade, the military unit he commands
Born in Busra al-Sham, a historically significant city in Daraa, Ahmad Haitham al-Awda pursued a degree in English literature at Damascus University. Unlike many prominent rebel commanders, he had no formal military training prior to the Syrian conflict. However, his leadership skills and tactical acumen quickly elevated him to prominence in the armed opposition movement.
From Rebel Commander to Russia’s Man
Al-Awda emerged as a field commander during the Syrian civil war, leading the Shabab al-Sunna Battalion, which later evolved into a larger faction within the Free Syrian Army (FSA). His forces played a critical role in battles across Daraa province, particularly in the capture of Busra al-Sham in 2015. Despite being aligned with the broader opposition, he maintained a degree of independence, distinguishing himself from Islamist factions like Jabhat al-Nusra (later Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS).
The pivotal moment in al-Awda’s trajectory came in 2018, when Russia brokered a reconciliation agreement with opposition forces in southern Syria following a military offensive by the Assad regime. Unlike many rebel leaders who relocated to northern Syria, al-Awda chose to remain in Daraa, negotiating an arrangement that allowed him to retain control over his fighters while integrating them into the Eighth Brigade, a unit within the Russian-backed Fifth Corps. This earned him the reputation of being “Russia’s man in southern Syria.”
Since 2018, al-Awda has carefully navigated the complexities of southern Syria, maintaining a delicate balance between cooperation with Russia and preserving his own autonomy. His forces have largely avoided direct confrontations with the Assad regime while simultaneously refusing to fully integrate into its military structure.
However, tensions began to rise in recent years as Russia pressured him to participate in counter-ISIS operations in the Syrian desert—a demand he resisted, leading to cuts in financial and logistical support for his forces. This financial strain, combined with defections from his ranks, raised doubts about the future of his military power.
Despite these challenges, al-Awda has played a crucial mediatory role in conflicts within Daraa, including the settlement agreement in al-Sanamayn, where he facilitated negotiations between regime forces and opposition elements. His approach has often been described as politically calculated rather than ideologically driven, as he consistently prioritizes long-term strategic positioning over short-term confrontations.
The Post-Assad Era: A New Role or a New Rivalry?
With the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, the Syrian political and military landscape has undergone a seismic shift. The new administration, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Joulani), has initiated efforts to dismantle all remaining armed factions and integrate them into a centralized national army under the Ministry of Defense.
While many armed factions complied, al-Awda has resisted full integration, demanding assurances and guarantees before committing to disbanding his forces. This reluctance has fueled speculation that he seeks to maintain his military autonomy or negotiate special privileges for his faction within the new power structure.
His recent meeting with al-Sharaa was viewed as a strategic move to assess his position within the new order rather than an outright commitment to joining the national army. While he has not publicly opposed the new administration, his absence from key integration meetings suggests lingering tensions and uncertainty over his future role.
A Threat to the New Syrian Leadership?
Western analysts and regional observers have speculated that al-Awda could emerge as a counterweight to Syria’s new rulers, particularly given his previous ties to Russia and his potential backing from regional players like the UAE and Jordan. Some view him as Syria’s Khalifa Haftar—a powerful military figure capable of leveraging foreign support to carve out a semi-independent power base.
While al-Awda has not openly challenged the new administration, his hesitant stance on disbanding his forces, his historic autonomy in Daraa, and his longstanding pragmatism make him a figure to watch in Syria’s evolving political landscape.
Prospects: Integration or Insurgency?
Several scenarios could unfold regarding al-Awda’s future in Syria:
- Full Integration into the National Army – If the new administration successfully negotiates guarantees for his fighters, al-Awda could merge his forces into the national army while retaining some influence in southern Syria.
- A Marginalized Role or Political Exile – If pressures continue, he may lose his autonomy, with some of his fighters defecting to the national army while he himself faces political irrelevance or seeks exile.
- A Future Insurgency or Alternative Power Center – If regional powers such as the UAE or Jordan support an alternative political or military force in Syria, al-Awda could become a major player in an emerging opposition movement against the new government.
Conclusion
Ahmad al-Awda’s trajectory reflects the broader complexities of Syria’s shifting military and political landscape. From his early days as a rebel commander to his role as Russia’s proxy in the south, and now as a key player in the post-Assad era, he has consistently demonstrated tactical pragmatism and political acumen.
Whether he ultimately integrates into the new Syrian state or emerges as a rival force will depend on how effectively the new leadership consolidates its authority and whether regional or international players seek to leverage his influence in shaping Syria’s future.
For now, Ahmad al-Awda remains a critical and unpredictable actor in the evolving post-Assad power struggle.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
