This report has been compiled based on two primary sources: a policy paper published by the Constitutional Party and an analytical article by Al-Jumhuriya website. The synthesis aims to provide a comprehensive view of the first 100 days of Syria’s new government, combining strategic assessments with socio-political analysis to illuminate the challenges and contradictions shaping Syria’s fragile transition.
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his flight to Moscow marked the end of 54 years of authoritarian rule rooted in sectarianism, repression, and institutional decay. The fall of Damascus came swiftly—12 days of military offensives by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led to a power vacuum filled by former insurgents turned rulers. Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), leader of HTS, assumed the presidency, initiating a fragile and controversial transition.
The first 100 days of this new governance offer critical insight into emerging dynamics, contradictions, and the formidable challenges Syria faces as it seeks to rebuild. These early weeks reflect both the possibility of national renewal and the danger of relapse into authoritarianism and sectarian conflict.
Winners and Losers in the New Syrian Landscape
Iran: Strategic Defeat
Iran, once a dominant powerbroker in Syria, now finds its influence diminished. The October 7 Hamas-Israel conflict and subsequent Israeli offensives marginalized Tehran. Its investments in Assad’s regime yielded little, and the Trump administration’s renewed sanctions and possible military measures further isolate Iran in the region.
Turkey: Strategic Ascendancy
Turkey, a key backer of opposition factions, has emerged as a primary beneficiary. Ankara’s support for groups now in power grants it influence beyond northern Syria, shaping Syria’s future governance and securing its southern frontier.
Israel: Expanding Reach
In response to Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel escalated military operations, striking deeply into Syrian territory, including Damascus, and occupying parts of Quneitra. Israel’s rhetoric has shifted to protecting minorities, redefining its engagement with Syria.
Political and Institutional Challenges
Filling the Institutional Void
The new government, led by Sharaa, moved quickly:
- Formed a transitional government based on HTS’s “Salvation Government.”
- Dissolved existing factions to create a new national army, controversially integrating foreign fighters.
- Dismissed thousands of civil servants, citing anti-corruption, though critics see it as sectarian purging.
Struggle for Legitimacy
Sharaa’s jihadist past and the government’s exclusionary politics raise serious legitimacy concerns. Efforts to project a national, inclusive image failed, particularly with a rushed National Dialogue Conference that excluded minority representation. A “constitutional declaration”, issued March 13, centralized power in the presidency and invoked religious-nationalist frameworks, triggering accusations of autocracy.
On the international stage, Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shibani sought economic aid and sanctions relief, but trust in the government’s intentions remains low.
Security Breakdown and Sectarian Violence
Sectarian Massacre on the Coast
A major security failure occurred when a mutiny by pro-Assad military remnants, likely coordinated with Maher al-Assad and possibly Iran, led to HTS-led retaliatory massacres of over 1,000 Alawite civilians. Foreign jihadists participated, and mass looting and displacement followed. This traumatic event, the worst against Alawites in Syria’s modern history, threatens national cohesion and deepens sectarian wounds.
Sharaa’s investigation committees are widely viewed as symbolic gestures, aimed at buying time rather than ensuring accountability.
HTS–SDF Agreement and Its Fragility
On March 10, Sharaa signed an agreement with SDF leader Mazloum Abdi, allowing limited Kurdish self-rule and SDF integration into the national army. The U.S. welcomed the deal, aiming to withdraw its troops, but Turkey reacted with concern. On March 14, Turkey’s officials visited Damascus, raising questions about external interference.
Crucially, SDF’s political wing (MSD) rejected the constitutional declaration, calling it “imposed and exclusionary”, jeopardizing the Sharaa-Abdi accord just days after its signing.
Economic Collapse and Social Strain
Austerity and Crisis
Syria’s economy is in free fall:
- Empty state coffers and mass layoffs justified as reform.
- Currency shortages worsened poverty; over 90% live below the poverty line.
- Energy shortages persist; restoring the grid to pre-2011 levels needs $10 billion.
Investment Paralysis
Foreign and domestic investment remains minimal, hindered by legal uncertainty, sanctions, and security risks. The government’s austerity measures weaken public trust and fuel unrest.
Fragmentation and Fear: Identity in Question
Ancestral Communities and Group Anxiety
Politics revolves around ancestral groups—Kurds, Druze, Alawites—who feel marginalized. Sunni-majority factions, now in power, act defensive and aggressive, driven by existential fear rather than confidence. This sectarianism mirrors Assad-era dynamics, undermining national unity.
Foreign Influence and Sovereignty
Syria is a battleground:
- Israel controls parts of the south.
- Russia remains entrenched.
- U.S. and Turkey maintain bases. Foreign presence recalls the 19th-century Eastern Question, reducing sovereignty and hindering cohesion.
Contradictions: Between Revolution and Sectarian Rule
- Democracy vs. Sunni Authoritarianism
Syria needs democracy but is governed by HTS’s anti-democratic, jihadist leadership. The regime risks replicating Assad’s one-party rule, merely under a different sectarian banner.
- Memory Wars and Collective Trauma
The coastal massacre entrenched sectarian traumas, obstructing reconciliation. The regime’s denial of crimes against Alawites and inability to address past abuses fosters alienation and mistrust.
- Process vs. Promise
A 5-year transition was promised, but rushed processes (dialogue, constitution) undermine credibility, intensifying pessimism.
The Core Question: Who Is the Syrian Nation?
Does the “Syrian nation” include all Syrians, or only Sunni Muslims? True sovereignty demands disarming foreign fighters, yet HTS’s reliance on non-Syrians contradicts its claims of national legitimacy.
Syria on the Brink
Syria’s fragile unity is at risk. Sectarian authoritarianism will lead to escalating violence, fragmentation, and foreign domination. The survival of Syria hinges on:
- Inclusive governance and transitional justice.
- Limiting executive power and embracing pluralism.
- Rejecting Assadism and jihadist authoritarianism alike.
- Building a democratic, national state.
A national safety net, non-sectarian and participatory, is urgently needed. Without it, Syria may not survive intact.
