As the US presidential elections draw near, and the contest between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris intensifies, the world eagerly anticipates who will next occupy the White House and how this will shape US foreign policy. Russia, despite its claims, seems to favor Trump, while Iran leans toward Harris, as does much of Europe. Arab nations are divided, and China, for its part, doesn’t see a significant difference given the bipartisan US strategy to contain it. Syrians, too, have their preferences, even though neither candidate has mentioned Syria, not even in passing, during their campaigns. Some factions of the Syrian opposition prefer Trump, which aligns—ironically—with the regime, albeit for different reasons.
The opposition’s support for Trump is based largely on the belief that he would take a stronger stance against Iran and its regional allies, particularly given his decision to order the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in early 2020. However, a closer look at Trump’s policies and actions, including those from his first term, shows that Syria is not a priority for him. He famously referred to Syria as a land of “death and sand.” His perceived toughness on Iran is less about curbing its influence in Syria or the broader region and more about undoing the legacy of his predecessor, Barack Obama, particularly regarding the 2015 nuclear deal. Trump’s withdrawal from that agreement and the imposition of sanctions on Iran were part of his “maximum pressure” policy, an effort aimed at crafting a new agreement under his own name. His desperation for a diplomatic victory even led him to attempt, unsuccessfully, to secure a photo-op with senior Iranian officials during the 2020 UN General Assembly.
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It is also worth noting that Trump avoided retaliating against Iran on two notable occasions: first, when he called off a strike on Iranian military installations after Iran shot down a US drone in June 2019, and second, when he downplayed Iran’s attack on Saudi Aramco facilities three months later. Contrary to popular belief, these actions suggest Trump is not eager for a confrontation with Iran. Ultimately, he approaches foreign policy like a businessman, viewing international relations through the lens of deal-making. If re-elected, it’s likely that he would pursue an agreement with Iran, similar to what he sought in his first term.
Trump’s business-oriented mindset also extends to the US military presence in northeastern Syria, which he sees as a burden. In line with this perspective, he could complete the withdrawal of US forces from eastern Syria that he initiated in 2019. This explains the regime’s preference for Trump, as the US presence—particularly its support for Kurdish forces in the resource-rich Jazira region—undermines Damascus’s efforts to reclaim control. Furthermore, US backing strengthens the Kurds’ negotiating position, preventing the regime from imposing its terms on them. Unlike the Biden-Harris administration, which includes officials with a pro-Kurdish stance, Trump has shown little interest in the Kurds, who played a key role in the US-led campaign against ISIS. If re-elected, Trump would likely abandon them quickly.
Though most expect that much of Biden’s foreign and security policy team will depart if Harris wins, largely due to their sidelining of her in recent years, it is likely that her policies toward Syria will not deviate significantly from those of Biden or Obama. This presents yet another unappealing option for both the regime and the opposition, both of whom seem to find common ground in their rejection of a Harris administration.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
