The north of Syria has experienced the most intense military escalation in over three months, with Russian warplanes conducting more than 25 airstrikes in recent hours across various areas of northwestern Syria. This surge in activity raises questions about the underlying reasons for the escalation.
Abu Amin, the supervisor of the Observatory 80, which monitors military movements, reported to Enab Baladi that Russian aircraft carried out 26 air raids within a 24-hour period, including 15 on Monday, October 14, and 11 on Tuesday.
He noted that Monday marked the most severe escalation, with seven Russian warplanes taking turns to bomb the countryside of northwestern Syria, conducting 15 raids that involved the use of 21 vacuum missiles. He emphasized that the targeted sites were near civilian camps rather than military installations, countering claims made by the Syrian regime.
Step up after a lull
The recent Russian escalation follows a lull of more than three months, with the last airstrike on northwestern Syria occurring on July 10. That strike targeted the vicinity of the village of al-Hamama in the Jisr al-Shughour countryside using vacuum missiles.
Since then, Russian aircraft have primarily conducted reconnaissance missions, while Syrian regime forces and militias have bombarded northern Syria almost daily with artillery and suicide drones.
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On Wednesday, one airstrike targeted the Kilani power station in the Ain al-Zarqa area of Darkoush, west of Idlib, halting water pumping in the region until further notice, according to Enab Baladi’s correspondent in Idlib.
The White Helmets reported that two civilians working at the Kilani power station were injured, and a fire broke out at the facility due to the direct Russian strikes.
In a statement on October 14, the Salvation government operating in Idlib condemned the “hostilities,” stating they exacerbate the suffering of the civilian population, increase pressure on border areas, and represent a form of “systematic terrorism” against unarmed civilians.
Warning to opposition factions
Commenting on the Russian escalation, Rashid Hourani, a military affairs researcher at the Jusoor Center for Studies, stated that the objective is to send warning messages to opposition factions. Russia aims to deter these groups from exploiting the regime’s current vulnerabilities amid the Israeli escalation, signaling that any advances would provoke a violent response from Moscow.
Hourani further explained to Enab Baladi that Russia wants to convey a message to Turkey, indicating its readiness to support and defend the regime against any military actions by the factions. Moscow is not willing to tolerate any violations of the agreements related to northwestern Syria between Ankara and Moscow.
The local newspaper Al-Watan reported that Russia’s extensive targeting of the Idlib and Lattakia countrysides serves as a warning to opposition factions about the potential consequences of “any recklessness,” particularly as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham mobilizes its fighters for a large-scale military operation against regime positions.
Messages to America
The Salvation government issued a statement on Monday indicating that the recent Russian escalation in northwestern Syria involved targeting high-density areas, with over 20 airstrikes on the northern and western outskirts of Idlib, coinciding with a visit from a UN delegation to the region.
In response, Dr. Abdullah al-Asaad, Dean of the Faculty of Political Science at al-Ahlia University, remarked that Russia’s targeting of a site where a UN delegation was present aims to send a message to the United States. He noted that Moscow is signalling its disregard for UN resolutions and asserting that the U.S. is not the sole decision-maker in Syria.
Dr. Asaad also suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to replicate the tactics of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has previously targeted UN peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon. He emphasized that Moscow is willing to violate international law, charters, and treaties.
Earlier in 2024, the Russian Foreign Ministry labelled the U.S. military presence in Syria as illegal and described it as a major factor contributing to the country’s instability.
Military parade
As the Russian military escalation continues in northwestern Syria, pro-regime pages reported that the Syrian government has sent military reinforcements from the “25th Division” (special missions) to the city of Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo, to support the Republican Guard forces stationed there since 2018.
In the same context, Abu Amin from Observatory 80 noted that the regime is dispatching military reinforcements to several villages and towns, including Icarda, Sheikh Ahmed, Um Otaiba, al-Kasibiya, and al-Bawabiya in the southern countryside of Aleppo, as well as to the east of the village of Kafr Aleppo.
Abu Amin emphasized that these reinforcements are primarily for “media and show only.” He characterized them as defensive rather than offensive, countering the regime’s narrative of their strategic intent.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
