The administration of US President Joe Biden has urged Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to refrain from assuming leadership in Syria unilaterally. Instead, it called on the group to facilitate an inclusive process for forming a transitional government. This coincided with the arrival of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Middle East to discuss the regional situation, reflecting a clear US intention to play a pivotal role in shaping Syria’s political future and ensuring a process that encompasses all factions and forces.
Following his visit to Jordan, Blinken arrived in Turkey last Thursday, where he met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. During the meetings, Blinken emphasized the importance of all actors in Syria respecting human rights and international humanitarian law, taking every measure to protect civilians, including minorities, and ensuring the continued operation of the international coalition against ISIS. This was detailed in a statement issued by the US State Department.
According to Reuters, communication between Washington and HTS has been coordinated with US allies in the Middle East, including Turkey. A US official stated that Washington had sent messages to HTS to guide early efforts in establishing a formal governance framework for Syria, stressing that a transitional government should reflect the aspirations of all Syrians.
The same official clarified that the US would not support HTS’s control in Syria without a formal process to select new leaders. He also noted uncertainty about the future role of Ahmad al-Sharaa within Syria’s government and whether he continues to espouse extremist ideologies.
Analysts suggest that the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has posed a challenge for the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump. His earlier stance of distancing the US from Syria has become increasingly difficult to maintain, given the country’s complex and interconnected geostrategic dimensions, especially regarding Israeli and Turkish actions. Observers argue that Washington is unlikely to make hasty decisions and will continue discussions until the Trump administration takes office in late January.
US Oversight of HTS’s Conduct
Tom Harb, a member of the US Republican Party, believes that the United States will evaluate HTS’s performance based on key criteria, including its abstention from acts of violence or abuses against civilians and its conduct during the transitional period. Speaking to +963, Harb noted that Washington might use Turkey and Qatar to exert pressure on HTS as a strategic card against any movements targeting Syrian communities. He also raised the possibility of the US coordinating with Israel to deter HTS if necessary.
On whether HTS could be removed from the terrorism list, Harb remarked that the US would closely monitor the group’s actions in the coming months. This includes its efforts to establish democratic state structures that respect all segments of Syrian society and uphold freedom of expression. If HTS instead reverts to extremist behavior aligned with political Islam, it risks further isolation.
Kamal al-Zaghoule, an international relations specialist, told +963 that the US would maintain sanctions on HTS and keep it on the terrorism list until the group aligns with American strategic goals. He explained that Washington might use its veto power at the UN Security Council to prevent international or non-governmental organizations from aiding reconstruction efforts in Syria as a form of leverage.
Opposition to Attacks on the SDF
Regarding the future relationship between HTS and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Harb emphasized the importance of dialogue. He suggested that Washington could play a supervisory role in fostering mutual understanding between the two sides if requested. He also stressed that the US would oppose any attacks on the SDF by other groups, leveraging its military presence in eastern Syria as a deterrent.
Although President-elect Donald Trump has stated that the US’s primary interest in Syria lies in supporting the SDF, Harb noted that the incoming administration is unlikely to intervene in internal skirmishes unless they escalate significantly. In such cases, Trump would likely defer to regional allies to manage the situation.
Analysts widely agree that Washington’s commitment to the SDF and Ankara’s pursuit of a buffer zone along its southern border will shape future developments. This could involve both military actions by Turkish-backed factions and political negotiations to resolve Syria’s broader conflict.
Balancing HTS and the SDF
Zaghoule warned that failing to recognize a new Syrian government could significantly impact Syria’s engagement with the region and the international community, particularly Europe. In such a scenario, Washington might bolster its support for the SDF to counterbalance HTS and ensure the latter remains aligned with the desired trajectory.
A former UN international observer added that the US is focused on steering HTS toward stability, inclusivity, and a rejection of religious and ideological extremism. This strategy aims to prevent Syria from aligning with Russia and China, which could undermine American interests, and to prioritize political participation and human rights.
Zaghoule further argued that Syria’s crisis has transitioned from a domestic issue to an international one, complicated by changes in US administrations. President Biden’s advocacy for Kurdish federalism—mirroring the model in Iraq—might involve drafting a new Syrian constitution. While such a move could pave the way for Kurdish autonomy, it faces staunch opposition from Turkey. Alternatively, the US might maintain the status quo until Syria becomes a stronger ally, at which point it could integrate the Kurds into a unified state.
Under a Trump administration, Zaghoule predicted two possible approaches: enforcing federalism or integrating the Kurds into a new Syrian state while prioritizing Israeli interests. He noted that the US tends to adopt a hands-off approach as long as its core interests remain unaffected.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
