In the wake of the Syrian regime’s collapse in December 2024, Russia has been actively engaging with the new government in Damascus to secure its long-term strategic interests. While Moscow had been a staunch supporter of the ousted President Bashar al-Assad, his downfall and subsequent flight to Russia have forced the Kremlin to recalibrate its approach. Recent negotiations between Russia and Syria highlight a complex interplay of military, economic, and political considerations as Moscow seeks to maintain its foothold in the country while the new Syrian leadership pursues economic recovery and diplomatic diversification.
Military Presence: Preserving Strategic Bases
One of Russia’s primary objectives in post-Assad Syria is to retain its military bases, particularly the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval facility. According to The Wall Street Journal, Moscow is engaged in high-level negotiations with the Syrian government to secure a long-term agreement allowing continued Russian military presence. These bases have been critical for Russia’s military operations in the Mediterranean and beyond, providing a strategic advantage in regional conflicts.
Although the Syrian government is engaging in talks, sources indicate that it is also seeking to renegotiate past agreements. Damascus has reportedly requested compensation for the extensive damage caused by Russian military support for Assad’s regime, including the bombing of civilian areas during the war. While Russia has signaled a willingness to issue an official apology for its role in the conflict, it has firmly rejected Syrian demands to extradite Assad, whom Moscow continues to shield.
Economic Cooperation and Investments
Beyond military interests, Russia is looking to expand its economic footprint in Syria through substantial investments. Negotiations include billion-dollar projects in critical sectors such as energy, port infrastructure, and natural resource extraction. Russia has proposed major developments, including the modernization of Tartus port, exploitation of Syrian gas and phosphate reserves, and the establishment of a fertilizer plant in Homs. These investments would not only serve Russia’s economic interests but also strengthen its influence over Syria’s economic recovery.
In a clear sign of deepening financial ties, Russia recently transferred $23 million worth of Syrian currency—printed in Moscow—to Syria’s central bank. This marks the second such shipment since Assad’s fall, reflecting Moscow’s role in stabilizing Syria’s war-torn economy. However, questions remain about the terms of this financial support, as Syria has been heavily reliant on Russian-printed currency due to sanctions restricting its ability to engage with Western financial institutions.
Geopolitical Implications and Syria’s Strategic Balancing
Syria’s new leadership, under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, is demonstrating a pragmatic approach to international relations. While Russia remains a key partner, Damascus is actively seeking to diversify its alliances beyond Moscow and Ankara. Reports indicate that the Syrian government has been exploring economic partnerships with Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have so far been hesitant to provide financial aid due to uncertainty over Washington’s stance on Syria.
The United States, under President Donald Trump, has not yet outlined a clear policy regarding the new Syrian government, creating an opportunity for Russia to solidify its influence. However, Syria is also mindful of the need to balance Russian and Turkish interests. While Ankara played a crucial role in supporting opposition forces that ultimately overthrew Assad, the new Syrian government appears cautious about over-reliance on Turkish influence. Instead, Damascus is looking to leverage its relationship with Russia to counterbalance Turkish and Iranian power in the region.
Energy and Trade: Renewed Russian-Syrian Cooperation
Another key development in Russian-Syrian relations is the resumption of direct energy shipments between the two countries. For the first time since 2013, a Russian oil tanker delivered diesel fuel to Syria, bypassing U.S. sanctions. According to trade data, the tanker, managed by a Dubai-based company under U.S. sanctions, transported 37,000 metric tons of diesel from Russia’s Baltic port to the Syrian port of Baniyas. This move signals an attempt by Moscow and Damascus to circumvent Western economic restrictions and ensure Syria’s access to essential energy supplies.
Furthermore, the Syrian government has announced plans to expand cooperation with Russian oil and gas firms, including contracts for offshore gas exploration and refinery upgrades. These agreements align with Russia’s broader strategy of maintaining economic leverage in Syria while securing a long-term role in its post-war reconstruction.
Challenges and Future Outlook
Despite the strengthening of Russian-Syrian ties, several challenges complicate the relationship. Western sanctions on both countries limit the scope of economic cooperation, while ongoing political instability in Syria raises concerns about the viability of long-term investments. Additionally, Syria’s demand for the return of assets and funds transferred to Russia by the Assad regime could become a contentious issue in future negotiations.
On the geopolitical front, Russia’s growing influence in Syria may face resistance from Western powers and regional actors wary of Moscow’s expanding role. The new Syrian leadership’s outreach to Gulf states and potential engagement with the West could also create friction in its dealings with Russia.
Nevertheless, the latest developments indicate that Moscow is determined to maintain its stronghold in Syria, leveraging military, economic, and diplomatic tools to ensure its continued relevance in the country’s post-Assad era. Meanwhile, Syria’s government is carefully navigating its options, seeking economic relief while asserting greater independence in its foreign policy.
The evolving dynamics between Russia and Syria reflect a broader realignment in the region following Assad’s downfall. While Moscow is working to preserve its strategic gains, Damascus is keen on maximizing economic support while balancing competing international interests. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Syria’s new leadership can redefine its relationship with Russia on more equal terms or whether Moscow will retain its dominant role in shaping the country’s future.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
