Syria’s neutrality in the Hamas-Israel conflict, suggesting that President Bashar al-Assad prioritizes regime survival over ideological alignments, while analysts highlight his attempts to balance relations with Iran, Russia, and moderate Arab states. Syrian refugees in Lebanon face a harsh choice between staying amid escalating violence or returning to Syria, where they risk detention and inadequate support, as detailed in an op-ed by Haid Haid. Meanwhile, MEMO featured Hussein Abdul Aziz’s analysis on Assad’s pragmatic neutrality, possibly signaling a shift away from Iran’s “axis of Resistance.” The UN voiced concerns over Israeli trench construction in the Golan Heights buffer zone, which could heighten regional tensions, as CNN reported. Lastly, Turkish President Erdogan expressed optimism for reconciliation with Syria, viewing it as a step towards stability and mutual security, reported by ABC News.
U.S. military says it strikes Iran-backed militia facility in Syria
Reuters reported that the U.S. military said on Tuesday it had conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage facility in Syria.
“These strikes were in response to a rocket attack on U.S. personnel at Patrol Base Shaddadi. There was no damage to U.S. facilities and no injuries to U.S. or partner forces during the attack,” the U.S. military said in a statement.
Syria Has Never Really Cared About Israel
Foreign Policy published an article which discusses the Syrian regime’s strategic detachment from the recent Hamas-Israel conflict, illustrating how it has consistently prioritized regime survival over ideological solidarity with Palestinian or regional causes. Early in the conflict, despite speculation that Syria might support Hamas, Bashar al-Assad’s government refrained from intervention, reinforcing a long-standing unwritten pact between the Assad family and Israel to maintain quiet borders.
The article quoted former Syrian diplomat Bassam Barabandi and other analysts highlight that the regime’s anti-Israel rhetoric serves mostly as a public relations tool, aiming to garner regional support while avoiding direct involvement. In contrast to previous pro-Palestinian demonstrations encouraged by the regime, current protests were limited, indicating Syria’s desire to distance itself clearly from the conflict.
Israel’s periodic strikes on Iranian assets in Syria underscore Assad’s calculated neutrality, as he relies on support from regional powers like the UAE—keen to reduce Western sanctions in exchange for his restrained approach. Analysts note that the Syrian regime’s subdued reaction also reflects its strained relationship with Hamas, which supported Syrian rebels in the past.
Additionally, Assad’s balancing act is influenced by Russian and Iranian interests. Russia has reportedly coordinated with Israel to permit strikes on Iranian targets in southern Syria, while Iran’s influence remains conditional on Assad’s continued rule. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah recently acknowledged Syria’s limited capacity to assist due to its prolonged civil war.
The article concludes that Syria’s absence from the conflict reveals the failure of Iran’s “unity of fronts” strategy, which sought coordinated resistance across allied groups. Ultimately, Syria’s current priorities underscore a focus on political survival over ideological or military alliances.
Caught Between Two Wars: The Risky Return of Syrian Refugees from Lebanon
Researcher and columnist Haid Haid published an op-ed in Tahrir Institute. Haid argues that amid the escalating Israeli-Lebanese conflict, Syrian refugees in Lebanon face a desperate dilemma: remain in a war-torn Lebanon or return to Syria, where dangers persist. With Lebanon’s worsening security and humanitarian crisis displacing over 1.2 million people, Syrian refugees, long subjected to discrimination and precarious living conditions, are increasingly driven to cross back into Syria despite serious risks.
Lebanese authorities report that over 500,000 refugees have crossed into Syria, though many fear arbitrary detention, forced conscription, and inadequate support upon return. Syrian returnees face exclusion from essential services, as the regime prioritizes Lebanese refugees in shelter and aid distribution, creating stark disparities. Despite promises of safety, incidents of detention, torture, and financial extortion have been reported, casting doubt on the regime’s commitment to protecting returnees.
Human rights groups stress the need for independent oversight to ensure returnees’ safety. Without robust monitoring, Syrian refugees remain trapped between hostile conditions in Lebanon and the risks of returning to Syria, calling for international accountability to uphold their rights and safety.
The reasons for Syria’s neutrality on the Israel war
Hussein Abdul Aziz published an article in MEMO analyzing Syria’s neutrality in the Israel-Gaza conflict, explaining that this stance reflects longstanding Syrian pragmatism and survival strategies rather than external pressures.
Despite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s historical alliance with Iran, he has distanced Syria from the conflict, partly due to the Syrian regime’s weakened military, divided territory, and economic fragility. Assad’s lack of support for Hezbollah or Hamas underscores Syria’s shift from ideological support for the “Resistance” to self-preservation, as his primary goal remains regaining control over territories lost during Syria’s civil war.
The author says Syria’s neutrality also reflects Assad’s interest in aligning with moderate Arab states, hoping this will lead to reintegration into the Arab fold and potentially influence U.S. policy on Syria. With support from Russia,
Assad, he concludes, has limited Iranian militia activity in Syria, aiming to avoid Israeli retaliation that could destabilize his regime. Aziz suggests that Assad’s actions may indicate a lasting shift away from Iran and the “axis of Resistance,” prioritizing his hold on power over previous ideological commitments.
UN sounds alarm at Israel’s ‘severe violations’ at key buffer zone with Syria
CNN reported that the United Nations has condemned Israel for “severe violations” of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Syria, accusing it of conducting extensive excavation activities in a UN-monitored buffer zone in the Golan Heights.
Satellite images show that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been building a five-mile-long trench near the Alpha Line, reportedly for defensive purposes to prevent unauthorized crossings. Despite the IDF’s claim that this is a security measure, UN peacekeepers and Syrian officials have expressed strong objections, warning that these actions could heighten tensions in the region.
The buffer zone, established after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, aims to maintain peace between Syria and Israel, though the two nations remain formally at war. The Golan Heights, a strategic area seized by Israel in 1967 and later annexed, is vital to Israel’s security interests, especially amid ongoing conflicts with Hezbollah. Analysts suggest the IDF’s activities in the Golan may reflect precautionary steps against Hezbollah, though experts doubt the group would open a new front from the Golan.
The report adds that Israel has recently conducted airstrikes inside Syria, targeting Iranian and Hezbollah-linked positions, and has warned Syria against allowing cross-border violations. Tensions remain high as Israel emphasizes its right to defend its sovereignty in this contested region.
Erdogan says he remains hopeful about reconciliation with Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he remains hopeful that a reconciliation with Syrian President Bashar Assad can be achieved to end more than a decade of tensions between their two neighboring countries, state-run media reported on Wednesday, quoted by ABC News.
Speaking to journalists on his return from trips to Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, Erdogan said he believes a normalization of ties would help stabilize Syria and protect its “territorial integrity.”
“I am still hopeful about Assad,” the state-run Anadolu Agency quoted Erdogan as saying. “I still have hope that we can come together and hopefully put Syria-Turkey relations back on track.”
Relations between Ankara and Damascus broke down with the outbreak of Syria’s civil war, when Turkey backed insurgent groups seeking to overthrow Assad, and Syria accused Turkey of fomenting instability. Turkey later carried out a series of incursions into Syria and still maintains forces in the opposition-held northwest, which Syria has strongly condemned.
More recently, Turkey has been seeking a reconciliation with Syria to address security threats from groups affiliated with Kurdish militants along its southern border and to help ensure the safe return of Syrian refugees. Russia, one of the strongest backers of Assad’s government but which also has close ties with Turkey, has been pushing for a return to diplomatic relations.
