Today’s news round on Syria covers a range of critical developments, highlighting the complex dynamics in the region. An Israeli airstrike near Damascus targeted a Palestinian operative, marking a continuation of heightened tensions along the Syrian-Lebanese border. Meanwhile, Turkey and Syria are cautiously exploring the normalization of relations, with conditions centered around counterterrorism and the return of refugees. In another disturbing report, media freedom groups are calling for the release of a journalist detained by Turkish-backed factions in Syria, underscoring the ongoing threats to press freedom in the conflict-ridden country. Additionally, a new book by former U.S. National Security Advisor HR McMaster reveals Russia’s double game in Syria, manipulating regional powers while bolstering Assad’s regime. The European Union, driven by far-right influence, is also reconsidering its stance on Syria, signaling a potential shift towards normalization with Assad, despite human rights concerns. Lastly, an analysis of Assad’s economic strategies reveals how his regime has managed to survive amid economic collapse by centralizing control through opaque business fronts, raising questions about the effectiveness of international sanctions.
Airstrike Targets Palestinian Operative near Damascus
An airstrike on the Syrian-Lebanese border resulted in the deaths of four individuals, including Faris Qasim, reportedly affiliated with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), JPost.com reported. According to the Israeli military, Qasim was involved in operational planning for the PIJ in Syria and Lebanon.
The strike, carried out by an Israeli drone, targeted a vehicle crossing a Syrian checkpoint. Sources stated that the vehicle was not transporting weapons.
Local Syrian official Abdo al-Taqi confirmed the incident, reporting four fatalities on the Damascus-Beirut road.
This incident follows an earlier airstrike in northeast Lebanon, which targeted a pickup truck carrying military equipment.
Tensions in the region have escalated due to cross-border hostilities between Israeli forces and armed factions, including Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, which have ties to Iran and the Syrian government.”
Turkey seeks momentum in ‘conditional’ normalization with Syria
Daily Sabah reported that Turkey and Syria are exploring normalization of relations, with Syrian President Bashar Assad stating that Turkish troop withdrawal is not a precondition for talks. However, Turkish diplomatic sources emphasize that normalization hinges on several conditions, including eradicating terrorism in Syria, specifically the YPG, maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity and unity, and genuine national reconciliation between the Assad regime and its people.
Additionally, Turkey requires the safe return of displaced Syrians – with 3.1 million refugees hosted in the country – and uninterrupted humanitarian aid to Syria. Turkey’s concerns stem from the YPG presence in northeastern Syria, past attacks on Turkish border towns, and infiltration of terrorists into Turkey.
Despite slow progress, recent developments suggest a potential breakthrough. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has extended an invitation to Assad, while Russia and Iran facilitate reconciliation talks. Furthermore, Turkish and Syrian intelligence chiefs are reportedly planning to meet soon, marking a significant step towards restoring ties severed since 2011.
Media freedom groups urge release of Syria journalist working for AFP
The Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders on Tuesday called for the immediate release of Syrian journalist Bakr al-Kassem who has been detained by pro-Turkish factions.
Kassem has worked for several media outlets including AFP in an area of the north of Syria controlled by Turkey-backed rebel factions.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said earlier on Tuesday he had been detained by local “military police” for unknown reasons.
Yeganeh Rezaian, interim regional coordinator for the US-based Committee to Protect Journalists, said “local authorities should immediately release al-Kassem and stop detaining journalists”, expressing concern over his arrest “without explanation”.
Rezaian added in a statement that the journalist was detained by “Syrian opposition factions” who then “transferred him to Turkish intelligence custody”.
The Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of sources in Syria, said Kassem was arrested by “Turkish intelligence and (local) military police” and was “beaten”.
The Paris-based Reporters Without Borders (RSF) in a statement called “on local authorities and all parties involved in his arrest to free him immediately”.
“The harassment of journalists must stop in this country, which is one of the world’s most dangerous for media workers,” said RSF’s Middle East director Jonathan Dagher.
Kassem’s wife Nabiha Taha, who is also a journalist, told AFP she and her husband were detained on Monday in the city of Al-Bab where they live, near the border with Turkey, as they returned by car from covering an event.
Putin played double game with Israel over Syria, Trump’s former national security advisor says
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin promised Israeli and Arab leaders he could curtail Iran’s influence in war-torn Syria, according to a new book by Donald Trump’s former national security advisor, HR McMaster, cited by Middle east Eye.
McMaster describes how he warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Russia was playing “a bait and switch” game with Israel, promising to restrain Iran’s proxies in Syria, according to excerpts from his new book, At War With Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House.
“Putin poured fuel on the flames of war and supported the murderous [Bashar al-] Assad regime while whispering to Israeli and Arab leaders that he promised to, over time, help diminish the influence of Iran in a post-civil war Syria,” McMaster wrote.
“Putin would never cut Iran out and Assad would never let the Iranians go.”
In one case, McMaster recalls confronting Netanyahu about his close relationship with Putin at the Munich Security Conference in 2018, where he voiced frustration at Netanyahu over his “hedging approach” to Russia.
“Prime Minister, you know that Putin is using a bait and switch – baiting you with the promise to curtail Iran’s presence and influence in Syria while actually enabling Iran’s proxies on your borders,” McMaster said he told Netanyahu, who sat next to him to confer about a speech he would give mentioning Hezbollah.
“Netanyahu smiled and said he had better return to his seat,” McMaster wrote.
Russia-Israel ties
Russia intervened in Syria’s civil war in 2015. President Assad turned the tide of the war in his favour thanks to a combination of Russian air power and Iranian-backed ground forces.
Despite Putin’s partnership with Iran in Syria, Netanyahu enjoyed close ties to the Russian leader.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Netanyahu’s successor, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, hesitated to join US sanctions against Russia.
Israel’s ambassador to the US, Michael Herzog, said Israel faced “some constraints” in not pushing back against Russia more forcefully amid US pressure.
He said Israel was concerned that Moscow could use its military in neighbouring Syria to derail a long-running air campaign that Israel has waged against Iranian-backed proxies in the country. In April, Israel bombed Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria.
“Since we often take action against Iranian military targets in Syria, and in the region, it is critical for us to maintain that freedom of action,” Herzog said, adding that Moscow could “disrupt” the campaign with its air defence systems in Syria.
EU’s Syria policy shifts amid calls to increase deportation
DW has published a report stating that the EU, led by Italy’s far-right government, is under increasing pressure to normalize relations with Bashar Assad’s regime, driven by a strategy to reduce Syrian refugees through diplomatic re-engagement and deportations, despite ongoing human rights concerns.
The European Union (EU) is under increasing pressure to reconsider its stance on Syria, with Italy leading the charge by resuming diplomatic ties with Bashar Assad’s regime. This shift comes as calls to deport Syrian asylum seekers grow, fueled by the rising influence of far-right political parties across Europe. Italy’s move, driven by its far-right government, aims to steer EU policy toward normalization with Assad, despite his regime’s responsibility for widespread atrocities during the Syrian civil war.
Italy’s decision to send an envoy to Damascus marks a significant step toward re-engagement with Syria, a move that some experts believe other EU countries may follow. This potential shift in EU policy is seen as a strategy to reduce the number of Syrian refugees by pressuring Assad to curb emigration and facilitating the deportation of Syrians whose asylum claims have been rejected.
Germany has already taken steps in this direction, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz supporting the deportation of Syrian offenders. Meanwhile, Denmark has begun revoking the residency permits of Syrian refugees from the Damascus area, deeming it safe for returns—a controversial stance given the ongoing dangers in Syria.
Despite the EU’s official policy of advocating for free and fair elections in Syria, there are signs of a gradual shift in the positions of several member states, potentially leading to a broader re-engagement with the Assad regime. However, human rights organizations continue to warn that Syria remains unsafe for returning refugees, highlighting the bleak conditions that await those forced to return.
Analysis: Networked Authoritarianism and Economic Resilience in Syria
Brookings Institute published a report arguing that Bashar al-Assad has maintained his regime’s power amid Syria’s economic collapse by centralizing control over key economic sectors through a network of opaque business fronts, enabling him to bypass sanctions and secure revenue, while minimizing risks of defection, highlighting the limitations of traditional economic sanctions in weakening his regime.
Bashar al-Assad’s survival amid Syria’s ongoing economic collapse is underpinned by a sophisticated network of economic structures designed to bypass sanctions and sustain the regime’s power. Assad has increasingly centralized control over key economic sectors, relying on a network of business fronts rather than traditional cronies. This shift is a direct response to the regime’s need to ensure reliable revenue streams amidst severe economic sanctions and internal instability.
Assad’s strategy involves reducing dependence on well-known business cronies like Rami Makhlouf, whose assets were seized in a significant power struggle. Instead, Assad has established a more opaque network of business fronts, figures with little public profile but deep ties to the regime. These fronts control significant portions of the Syrian economy, channeling profits directly into Assad’s coffers while minimizing the risk of defection or resistance seen in the Makhlouf episode.
This restructuring of Syria’s political economy is crucial for understanding Assad’s continued resilience. By centralizing economic power, Assad has insulated his regime from external economic pressures and maintained his grip on power despite a devastated economy, widespread poverty, and ongoing sanctions. The emergence of these new networks underscores the challenges facing international efforts to hold the regime accountable and highlights the limitations of traditional economic sanctions.
In conclusion, Assad’s networked authoritarianism, characterized by direct control over key economic activities through loyal business fronts, has been vital in his regime’s ability to navigate economic collapse. This evolving strategy presents significant obstacles for external actors seeking to weaken the regime through economic means, indicating the need for a more nuanced approach to counter Assad’s economic resilience.
