Today news round on Syria covers several critical developments and analyses regarding the ongoing conflict and international involvement. Carolyn Moorman’s report from the New Lines Institute discusses the potential repercussions of a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Syria, focusing on Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) and the complex dynamics of local alliances, particularly with the Kurdish Peshmerga and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Rising isolationism in the U.S., combined with internal and external pressures, underscores the need for meticulous contingency planning to prevent an ISIS resurgence and maintain regional stability. Concurrently, eight EU member states are calling for a reassessment of the EU’s approach to Syria, advocating for a more active and operational policy to increase political leverage and humanitarian assistance. Amidst these geopolitical discussions, the UN Security Council was briefed on the severe humanitarian crisis in Syria, exacerbated by poor funding, extreme heat, and water shortages, with urgent calls for increased funding and humanitarian access. These varied but interconnected developments highlight the complex and volatile situation in Syria and the broader Middle East.
The Consequences of U.S. Forces Leaving Iraq and Syria
The New Lines Institute published a detailed report discussing the possibility of an American withdrawal from Syria and Iraq. Carolyn Moorman’s article examines the potential consequences of such a withdrawal, especially in the context of Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), the U.S.-led military operation against ISIS. Rising isolationism in the U.S. and tensions with Iran and its proxies make a withdrawal likely, yet the U.S. lacks contingency plans for the region post-OIR.
Currently, OIR involves a small U.S. footprint in Syria, supported logistically from Iraq, working with local allies like the Kurdish Peshmerga and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Internal pressures in the U.S. show a trend towards isolationist foreign policy, and political changes could influence future decisions about OIR. In Iraq, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani faces pressure from Iran-aligned factions to end the U.S. military presence.
A U.S.-Iraqi commission has been established to discuss a potential reduction of U.S. forces, aiming for a bilateral security partnership. Increased militia attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria highlight the region’s volatility, potentially leading to a rapid U.S. withdrawal which would affect regional stability.
The impact of a U.S. exit would be significant, affecting counterterrorism efforts, regional politics, and security. The gap left by U.S. forces might be filled by Iranian-affiliated militias, increasing Tehran’s influence. The U.S. mission in Syria heavily relies on logistical support from Iraq, and a withdrawal from Iraq would complicate support for the SDF, risking a resurgence of ISIS. Longstanding tensions between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the SDF pose challenges for cooperation, with the KDP’s relationship with Türkiye contrasting with the SDF’s ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), designated as a terrorist organization by Türkiye.
U.S. policymakers must develop comprehensive plans for a post-withdrawal scenario to prevent an ISIS resurgence and maintain regional stability. This includes considering the dynamics between key regional allies and how they might support ongoing counterterrorism efforts. Scenario planning with regional partners is vital to ensure preparedness, potentially involving relocating U.S. logistical support from federal Iraq to the KRG. Enhanced cooperation between the SDC and the KRG is crucial for stabilizing the region post-withdrawal.
In summary, the potential U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Syria requires meticulous planning to mitigate risks and ensure the stability of counterterrorism operations and regional politics. Addressing the complexities of ally relationships and preparing for various scenarios are critical steps for U.S. policymakers.
Eight EU member states call for Syria policy reset
A group of eight member states has called on the EU to “review and assess” its approach to Syria ahead of a broader discussion on the situation in the Middle East between European Union foreign ministers on Monday (22 July).
“Our goal is a more active, outcome-driven, and operational Syria policy,” foreign ministers of Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Slovakia and Slovenia wrote in a letter, seen by Euractiv, to the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell.
“This would allow us to increase our political leverage [and] the effectiveness of our humanitarian assistance,” they add.
Thirteen years into Syria’s conflict, President Bashar al-Assad still holds power over many parts of the country, helped by Russia’s military presence and Iran’s Shi’ite militias.
The EU has imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on the Assad regime and severed official relations with Damascus.
In the letter, they proposed ten areas that should be discussed “openly and without prejudice”, outlined in a separate non-paper.
They also pitched the creation of an EU-Syria envoy, who would be tasked with re-engaging the Syrian ambassador to Brussels and liaising with both Syrian and regional actors.
“After 13 years of war, we have to admit that our Syria policy has not aged well,” Austria’s Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said.
“Bitter as it is, with the help of Iran and Russia, the Assad regime remains firmly in the saddle, the Syrian opposition is fragmented or in exile altogether – the European Union cannot turn a blind eye to this reality any longer,” Schallenberg added.
Syria crisis at Security Council: OCHA highlights impact of poor funding and heatwaves
Ramesh Rajasingham from briefed the UNSC on the severe humanitarian crisis in Syria. Over 16 million people need assistance, with 7.2 million displaced due to ongoing conflict, economic hardship, climate change, and insufficient funding. The situation is exacerbated by extreme heat, water shortages, and water-borne diseases, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups like women and children.
Humanitarian efforts are hampered by funding shortfalls, with the Humanitarian Response Plan only 20% funded. Significant efforts are underway to address water needs, including installing water treatment stations and repairing crucial water infrastructure. Despite these efforts, more than 900,000 people in north-west Syria lack essential water and sanitation support.
The Bab al-Hawa crossing from Türkiye remains vital for delivering aid, and the Syrian government’s extension of its use is welcomed. However, delays in cross-line missions highlight ongoing challenges. The briefing emphasizes the need for increased funding, improved humanitarian access, and a political solution to end the conflict.
