The dispatch of Italy’s ambassador to Syria was the culmination of a prolonged effort by the Romanian EU representative to normalize relations between the EU and the Syrian regime, which he considered a personal achievement. The objective of engaging with the regime is to address three primary threats to European security: halting the drug trade, limiting refugee influx by creating a stable environment in Syria, and combating terrorism and organized crime.
The European Union has struggled to adopt a unified stance and action plan supporting the Syrian people’s revolution against the regime. The absence of credible opposition leaders and institutions, combined with American interests in negotiating with Iran, has limited international political initiatives to confront Iran and its allies, including the Assad regime. This situation has led the Arab League and Turkey to restore relations with the regime to mitigate these threats. The European initiative is part of this regional movement towards the regime, rather than a specific EU action.
The shift in Arab and European attitudes towards the regime coincided with its policy of blackmailing these countries by increasing drug exports until they complied with its conditions. Italian authorities seized a $1.5 billion drug shipment from the Syrian regime, in cooperation with Libyan and Italian mafias. German authorities also discovered the largest Syrian drug shipment in the past year.
Syria’s dire economic situation threatens a new wave of displacement similar to 2015. Despite daily increases in migrants to Europe and restrictive measures against Syrians, there is fear of an internal explosion leading to a new wave of migration. The regime, in cooperation with Hezbollah, has facilitated the smuggling of hundreds of Syrians to Lebanon through illegal crossings, raising fears among Europeans. Additionally, dozens of Syrian refugees attempt to reach Cyprus weekly.
The arrest of Bruno Carbone, leader of the Italian “Camorra” mafia, highlighted the mafia’s relationship with the Assad regime. This lack of central security authority increases fears of terrorist organizations returning to Syria and transferring their activities to Europe. Furthermore, Italy has continued supplying the Assad regime with military equipment. An international report revealed how Western technology companies provided Damascus with equipment for large-scale espionage and surveillance operations against political activists, opponents, journalists, and citizens.
The refugee issue remains a pressing concern for Europeans from multiple angles. They fear the influx of individuals linked to terrorist organizations like ISIS, Al-Nusra, and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party among Syrian refugees. Additionally, they worry about the arrival of those who committed crimes against humanity in Syria and the potential transfer of money laundering operations and drug shipments from Syria to Gulf states via European territories.
The political dimension of Syrian displacement poses the greatest danger, as the 2015 refugee influx to Europe strengthened right-wing parties and their extremist ideas. These parties, known for their ties to Russia and some receiving direct financial support, have gained seats and votes across Europe, notably the “Brothers of Italy” party’s victory in the 2022 Italian elections. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov welcomed this victory, embracing political forces that can overcome mainstream hostility towards Russia.
To fulfill electoral promises, high-level security meetings between Italy, Romania, and the Syrian regime discussed establishing safe zones within Syria for returning refugees. Russia is suggested to guarantee this safe return by compelling the regime to take measures allowing Europeans to declare certain areas of Syria safe for refugees. This is accompanied by the establishment of an early reconstruction fund proposed by Abdullah Al-Dardi, with support from countries bypassing US sanctions on the Assad regime, provided the regime keeps border crossings with Turkey open for humanitarian aid.
It appears the Assad regime requested Italy to appoint an ambassador to Damascus as a first step towards building trust after years of security contacts. Notably, the United States does not oppose communication with the regime and has eased economic pressure, halting sanctions extensions and appointing individuals inclined towards establishing relations with the regime. European countries and the US generally assess that the regime operates under Iranian and Russian protection. In the absence of opposition, no one desires the regime’s collapse, fearing chaos similar to Libya and Iraq, even if it means handing the country over to Iran. Despite knowing Arab communication with the regime has yielded no results, they seek to repeat the experience.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
