In an interview with the Iranian newspaper Iranian Diplomacy, Ali Reza Majidi, an Iranian expert on regional and Middle Eastern affairs, offered insights into the evolving policies of the Syrian regime following Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa and their impact on regional dynamics.
The discussion explored recent controversies surrounding Syria’s relationship with Iran and its distancing from the so-called Resistance Axis. Majidi delved into the Syrian regime’s positioning on the Palestinian cause and its claimed fight against Israel, suggesting a significant shift in its approach.
Majidi noted that Syria has moved beyond the war phase, emphasizing the four-and-a-half-year ceasefire that began in March 2020 as a key indicator. He suggested that the Syrian government has adopted a new strategy focused on reconstruction and avoiding direct conflict with the opposition, despite the fact that a third of the country remains outside the regime’s control.
A Deeper Crisis Than 2016
The expert highlighted the dire economic situation plaguing the Assad regime. He pointed out that Syria’s remaining infrastructure is costly to maintain, and the longer the reconstruction is delayed, the greater the pressure on the regime. According to Majidi, Syria’s current condition is far worse than in 2016, citing, for instance, the severe electricity shortages in Damascus, where many areas receive power for just three hours a day, save for wealthier neighborhoods that benefitted from the socio-economic disparities exacerbated by the war.
Majidi also warned that the cost of reconstruction has skyrocketed. While estimates in 2016 placed the figure around $400 billion, today it is believed to be closer to $1 trillion, making Syria’s path to recovery increasingly arduous.
Dual Strategy: Confronting the U.S. While Steering Clear of Israel
Majidi explained that Damascus has sought to exploit the fallout from the Al-Aqsa flood, adopting a dual strategy in its dealings with the United States and Arab countries. The Syrian regime, he said, has tried to project strength against the U.S. while subtly distancing itself from the Resistance Axis.
He argued that Syria, contrary to popular belief, does not consider itself fully aligned with the Resistance Axis. Damascus, according to Majidi, sees this as an opportunity to demonstrate to the Arab world that it remains independent of Iran, especially as debates around the “unity of the arenas” unfold.
Majidi pointed to a recent visit by a former Iranian Foreign Minister, who was tragically killed alongside former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last May, as evidence of Tehran’s miscalculation. Iran believed Syria would act following the Al-Aqsa Intifada, but Damascus opted to refrain, signaling its reluctance to engage fully in the Resistance Axis’ actions.
Targeting U.S. Forces, but Not Israel
Following the Al-Aqsa Intifada, Majidi explained, the Syrian regime allowed resistance forces to operate against American targets in eastern Syria, a move designed to show defiance towards the U.S. He revealed that Damascus had given the green light to both national and Iraqi resistance forces to pressure the U.S. into withdrawing its presence from the region.
However, this freedom of action was limited to eastern Syria. In northern, central, and southern Syria, Majidi noted, the regime strongly cautioned resistance forces against engaging in any activity, underscoring Syria’s reluctance to antagonize Israel directly.
Iranian Influence in Damascus: A Tightening Grip
Toward the end of the interview, Majidi touched on Iran’s growing influence over Syrian intelligence, particularly regarding Israeli infiltration. He claimed that the Presidential Palace in Damascus granted Iran and the Resistance Axis full authority to investigate Israeli intelligence operations within Syria following the assassination of Brigadier General Ali Reza Zahedi of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Majidi suggested that Iran has expanded its control within Syria, to the point where key Syrian officials—possibly even among the top 10 positions in the government—have fallen under Iranian scrutiny. He alluded to the killing of one high-ranking official accused of spying for Israel, emphasizing Iran’s heavy-handed response to Israeli intelligence activities within Syria.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
