The View from Damascus, a detailed analysis exploring Syria’s transition following the historic fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024. It delves into the policies and strategies shaping the post-Assad era, highlighting the intricate roles played by local, regional, and international actors.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, marked a turning point in Syria’s modern history. President Joe Biden’s administration described this as a “historic opportunity for the Syrian people” but expressed concerns over the uncertainties of the transitional phase. The leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., Europe, and the U.N., adds complexity to Syria’s political restructuring. At the same time, regional powers like Iran and Russia seek to exploit the power vacuum, challenging U.S. and Western interests in stabilizing Syria.
The Biden Administration’s Policies
The Biden administration adopted a multifaceted strategy to weaken the Assad regime and shape the transition in post-Assad Syria. According to the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, this approach combined economic, military, and diplomatic measures to address the complex dynamics on the ground.
Economic Pressure Through Sanctions
One of the administration’s most effective tools was the implementation of comprehensive sanctions targeting Assad’s government and individuals responsible for atrocities against the Syrian people. These sanctions eroded critical state institutions, including the military and security apparatus, weakening their ability to sustain the regime and suppress opposition. The cumulative impact of these measures disrupted the regime’s financial networks and hindered its ability to rally support from key domestic and international allies.
Military Presence to Counter Threats
The continued U.S. military presence in Syria, particularly in eastern regions, served multiple objectives. Primarily, it prevented the resurgence of ISIS by maintaining pressure on its remnants and supporting detention facilities holding thousands of ISIS fighters and their families. Additionally, the military presence acted as a buffer against Iranian influence in the region, aligning with broader U.S. efforts to counter Tehran’s proxies. This strategy also supported Israel’s operations against Iranian networks, which Biden characterized as part of his administration’s broader effort to “change the balance of power in the Middle East.”
Engagement with HTS Amid Counterterrorism Efforts
Despite its designation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a terrorist organization due to its historical ties to al-Qaeda, the Biden administration engaged in limited dialogue with HTS’s leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa. This engagement reflected a pragmatic approach to navigating the transitional phase, acknowledging HTS’s role in the ousting of Assad while maintaining pressure for reform. The suspension of a $10 million bounty on al-Sharaa underscored this nuanced approach, allowing room for potential dialogue while signaling that HTS must demonstrate concrete steps to sever its extremist ties.
Balancing Counterterrorism and Humanitarian Relief
In parallel with counterterrorism efforts, the administration sought to ease restrictions on Syria to support recovery and goodwill with the interim government. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a six-month license permitting humanitarian transactions, enabling critical services like water, sanitation, and electricity to reach affected areas. These measures aimed to alleviate immediate needs without lifting broader sanctions, maintaining leverage over the transitional government.
Diplomatic Coordination with Allies
Secretary of State Antony Blinken played a pivotal role in coordinating with regional and international partners to stabilize Syria during the transitional period. His December visits to Turkey, Iraq, and Jordan focused on aligning efforts to prevent ISIS’s resurgence, stabilizing eastern Syria, and supporting a Syrian-led political process.
In Turkey, discussions centered on managing tensions between Ankara and Kurdish forces, balancing Turkey’s legitimate security concerns with the role of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in combating ISIS. In Iraq and Jordan, Blinken engaged in broader regional strategies to address cross-border threats and ensure stability.
Engagement in Damascus
The administration also took a direct approach to Syria’s transitional leadership. A U.S. delegation led by Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf visited Damascus, meeting with Ahmad al-Sharaa and other representatives of the transitional government, as well as civil society actors. Leaf reaffirmed U.S. support for an inclusive political process, as outlined in U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254, emphasizing the need for transparent, representative, and accountable governance. This engagement highlighted Washington’s commitment to fostering a stable and democratic Syria while holding the transitional government accountable for its actions.
Through this comprehensive approach, the Biden administration sought to navigate the delicate balance between counterterrorism, humanitarian relief, and regional stability during Syria’s transitional phase. Its efforts underscored the challenges of engaging with a fragmented landscape while maintaining a firm stance on core U.S. interests.
HTS: A Double-Edged Sword
As Al-Araby Al-Jadeed highlighted, HTS remains both a pivotal and contentious actor in Syria’s transition. Despite its instrumental role in toppling Assad, the group’s extremist roots and inclusion in Syria’s transitional government raise significant concerns.
Robert Ford, former U.S. Ambassador to Syria, stressed the need for HTS to sever ties with extremist networks and meet specific benchmarks for delisting from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa pledged to disband armed factions, including HTS itself, as part of efforts to unify Syria under a civilian-led government. However, skepticism persists, particularly among Western allies wary of jihadist influences within Syria’s new defense apparatus.
European Cooperation and Sanctions Relief
Blinken traveled to Rome to discuss stabilization efforts with European allies amidst ongoing tensions with Turkey. Clashes between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army underscored the fragility of the region, particularly in Manbij.
European leaders, including French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barro and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, engaged with Syria’s new administration to support reconstruction and migration management. Italy’s hard-right government, concerned about migration pressures, reaffirmed its focus on limiting asylum flows from Syria. Discussions also touched on easing sanctions, with Barro suggesting a phased approach contingent on progress in governance and stability.
The Transition to Trump
As Al-Araby Al-Jadeed noted, the Biden administration left critical decisions—such as delisting HTS from the FTO registry—to President-elect Donald Trump. Trump’s history of erratic policies on Syria, including initial plans to withdraw U.S. troops before reversing under pressure, raises questions about the future of American engagement in the region.
Trump has appointed hardliners like Sebastian Gorka and Michael Waltz to key positions, signaling a potential continuation of sanctions and a stringent counterterrorism stance. Western officials anticipate that Trump may scale back Biden’s emphasis on inclusivity while supporting further Israeli territorial claims, as seen during his 2019 recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Conclusion
Syria’s transition faces formidable challenges. Economic recovery remains hampered by sanctions, while security concerns and the need for national unification demand careful navigation. Ahmad al-Sharaa’s administration must address Western apprehensions by fostering transparency, dismantling extremist factions, and promoting inclusivity.
International engagement, including U.S.-European cooperation, is essential to rebuilding Syria’s institutions. A pluralistic governance model will be crucial for integrating various communities and restoring Syria’s sovereignty. As the U.S. prepares for a shift in leadership, the trajectory of Syria’s recovery will depend on sustained efforts to balance domestic reforms with international diplomacy.
