It seems likely that Israel will not be content with its limited ground incursion into Syria from the southern countryside of Quneitra and may advance further into Syrian territory in the future. This would be driven by objectives related to the conflict in Lebanon, specifically to disrupt the transfer of supplies to Hezbollah via the main road through the Masnaa crossing or through unofficial crossings and potentially tunnels connecting both sides of the border.
Such an eventuality would not necessarily aim to reach Damascus, even if it were close or vulnerable. However, it highlights the existing and anticipated role of the regime and Bashar al-Assad personally in this expanding conflict, which is involving new parties and broadening its objectives.
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The regime’s denial of the Israeli incursion, alongside the withdrawal of Russian forces and allied militias, suggests a strategy of silence, withdrawal, and potentially coordination in exchange for any expansion of military activity within Syrian territory—particularly along the border with Lebanon and into the Bekaa Valley. This stance aligns with the regime’s apparent indifference to the war in Gaza and Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon, despite the contradictions inherent in its alliance with Iran and its militias, most notably Hezbollah.
Currently, the regime’s security in Syria is heavily reliant on Iranian capabilities, which include numerous militias, including forces from Hezbollah. Given the current military intensity, it is challenging to predict the outcome of the conflict or assess the capabilities of Iran and Israel on Syrian soil. This uncertainty complicates Bashar al-Assad’s ability to distance himself from Iran and Hezbollah or to prevent them from engaging in conflict with Israel on Syrian territory. He understands that Tehran will not allow him to gamble on the Israelis, especially if Hezbollah faces significant setbacks or approaches defeat. In such a scenario, a coup against him could be orchestrated, even if it poses challenges for the Russians. Iran is unlikely to abandon its substantial investment in Syria to accommodate Bashar’s survival strategies.
Bashar recognizes that this opportunism may not yield favourable results and that the leap he desires could plunge him into deeper trouble. However, he sees adventure as preferable to remaining in a sinking ship. He may have already received promises and advice that could make his leap safer, especially since his actions impact his entire community. At the regional or international level, there may be parties facilitating this exit strategy for him, potentially in collaboration with Israel, providing a pathway to safety. For the regime and its sect in Syria, the outcome of the current and anticipated wars will be vastly different if they signal the end of Iranian influence.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
