The killing of Luna al-Shibl, an advisor to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has sparked widespread speculation and rumors among Syrians, particularly in Damascus. Following her death, many began connecting it to a series of recent events, including the neutralization of businessman Abu Ali Khadr, close to First Lady Asma al-Assad, and the “godfather of oil” Hossam al-Qaterji. Additionally, there were leaks about the poisoning of Yasar Ibrahim, the treasurer of the Republican Palace, and Asma al-Assad’s cancer diagnosis and subsequent absence during her treatment period. These events culminated in the killing of Luna al-Shibl, known as “Luna the Cub.”
The Death of Luna al-Shibl: Beginning of a Series of Eliminations or End of an Era?
Luna al-Shibl’s death is not seen as an ordinary accident. Official reports stated that her car was subjected to “several impacts,” causing it to veer off course and resulting in serious injuries that led to her hospitalization. Despite the sensitivity of the incident, there have been no announced investigations or information about the car that hit her, its driver, or her companion. The official version suggests the event was planned but not followed up on.
Many in Damascus are convinced that her death was an assassination and are linking it to other recent eliminations of prominent regime figures. This series of eliminations and the exclusion of hawkish figures from the public scene are seen by some as connected to the Syrian-Gulf rapprochement and potential rapprochement with Turkey. Various rumors are circulating regarding the reasons behind these events.
The Gulf Scenario: Conditions for Assad’s Survival and Radical Changes in the Regime
One scenario suggests that Assad has pledged to the UAE and other Arab countries to eliminate those close to him, including warlords with economic influence and key security leaders. This includes neutralizing figures like Ali Mamlouk and modifying the “Syrian army” and the powers of security branches. This would open the investment field for Gulf investors in exchange for Assad remaining in power with defined powers and accepting the Arab solution and Resolution 2254.
The Infiltration Scenario: Assad’s Final Days?
Another rumor suggests that Assad is in his final days, infiltrated and exposed within his close circle on sensitive issues. Facing Iranian accusations and threats due to his involvement in infiltrations against Iran, Assad is reportedly liquidating his “black boxes” and restructuring his inner circle according to new rules. This scenario indicates that Assad’s closest ally, Iran, is dissatisfied with him and may seek to eliminate him, especially after his rapprochement with Gulf states.
The Loyalists’ Vision: Corrective Movement or New Campaign of Repression?
A third widespread rumor among regime supporters holds that Assad is undertaking an unprecedented corrective movement to improve living conditions and provide a good investment environment. This aligns with Arab countries’ conditions by cleaning internal affairs and suppressing corruption. Supporters believe this coincides with Turkish flirtations with Assad, the restoration of Arab relations, and the withdrawal of an American draft law criminalizing normalization with Assad. They foresee economic improvement in Syria due to Gulf investments, financial support, and trade with Turkey, leading to a stronger lira and lower prices.
A Transformation Phase for the Regime?
While there is no tangible evidence to confirm the exact happenings within the regime, all popular rumors indicate a clear transformation phase. The regime appears to be taking a new path, but the reasons behind this shift and the gains Assad might achieve remain unclear. After 13 years of intransigence and oppression, it is uncertain what forces Assad to transform and what benefits he hopes to secure beyond ensuring his survival without powers.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
