Since September 27, the region has experienced significant escalation following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and senior Hezbollah leaders, Assad’s primary ally. This was compounded three days later by an Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon and statements from Israeli officials regarding the establishment of a new Middle East.
In response, Israel has implemented a strategy aimed at severing military and logistical ties between Syria and Hezbollah. This includes tightening a siege along the border, utilizing reconnaissance drones to monitor movements from Syria to Lebanon, and escalating air strikes within Syria. The most recent strike targeted a Hezbollah leader in the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus last Monday.
Amid this rising tension, the Syrian regime announced earlier this month plans to demobilize batches of officers and reserve soldiers as part of a new military restructuring strategy. The decision, which marks the end of retention and recall of reserve officers who complete a five-year service period by October 31, 2024, will take effect on November 1, 2024.
While this decision is not unprecedented, it aligns with a series of similar measures aimed at restructuring the military. The regime has recently issued various laws, including demobilization decisions and amnesty decrees for internal and external desertion crimes, the latest of which was enacted on September 22.
Notably, the regime has also opened the door for volunteers, with conditions announced by the Ministry of Defense via its official Facebook account on October 11. These conditions include substantial financial incentives compared to standard state salaries, alongside a clearer outline of contract duration and terms.
In June, Major General Ahmed Suleiman, the Director General of the General Administration in the Ministry of Defense, outlined a three-phase timetable for reserve demobilization. The first phase, starting from July 1, 2024, will continue through the end of the year and will prioritize individuals based on their years of service. The second phase will commence in early 2025, while the third phase will limit maximum reserve service to two years, with adjustments possible based on enrollment rates.]
Internal Messages
Maan Talaa, the director of research at the Omran Center for Studies, believes the recent decisions reflect the regime’s political insights and vision. He identifies two key levels: first, the regime’s self-perception and its efforts to reshape its security and military networks in preparation for the future, enabling it to adapt to upcoming changes.
Talaa notes that these decisions also serve as political signals, indicating the regime’s capability to maintain control over society in response to these transformations. Additionally, they aim to create favorable conditions within Syria for the eventual return of refugees.
External messages
At the external level, the regime’s decisions convey messages to two key parties, the first being the Arab countries, whose role in normalization has intensified following the Gaza war and the ongoing situation in Lebanon.
According to Talaa, the regime aims to signal to Arab states that it maintains a negative stance toward regional developments, prioritizing its internal concerns. These include issuing amnesty decrees, restructuring the military, reducing societal militarization, and implementing strategies to disarm and rehabilitate armed groups, all in an effort to promote internal stability.
Talaa emphasizes that the most significant message in this context is to suggest to Israelis that the transition to a professional army is now an established goal. This shift comes despite earlier expectations that such a transition would require a long-term plan. As a result, concepts like volunteerism, public mobilization, and public alarm in Syria are nearing their end, reflecting a fundamental change in the regime’s military doctrine.
“Ending conscription indicates that the goal of forming a professional army is to focus on local tasks rather than engage in external crises,” Talaa stated. “Consequently, the army’s role will resemble that of border police, especially given the domestic exhaustion it faces.” He underscored that all these developments serve as “an indirect message of reassurance to Israelis.”
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
