With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Syria enters a critical juncture—one that holds both the promise of renewal and the peril of regression. Three recent op-eds by Paola Attia, Hassan al-Nifi, and Hassan al-Aswad offer a layered examination of the country’s post-Assad trajectory, each highlighting a different yet interconnected dimension of Syria’s evolving challenges. Together, they point to a shared concern: whether Syria’s new leadership can deliver real change or whether it risks reproducing the exclusion, mismanagement, and authoritarianism of the past under a different banner.
Fragile Foundations of Economic Reform
In her piece, Paola Attia urges caution against the uncritical embrace of a free-market economy. While acknowledging the economic benefits of recent reforms—such as the lifting of currency restrictions and reduction of tariffs—she warns that structural weaknesses threaten to undermine these gains. Attia underscores that Syria lacks the necessary infrastructure, institutional capacity, and investment climate to fully adopt a liberal economic model akin to Singapore or Saudi Arabia, as envisioned by the new leadership. Without addressing corruption, production shortfalls, and a lack of investor protections, free-market policies could deepen inequality and further marginalize vulnerable populations. Her analysis suggests that economic optimism must be tempered by a grounded understanding of Syria’s realities and that gradual, inclusive economic planning is essential.
Legitimacy in Question: Political Power and Public Trust
Hassan al-Nifi shifts the focus to political legitimacy and governance, scrutinizing the conduct and rhetoric of the new rulers, particularly President Ahmad al-Sharaa and the leadership of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Al-Nifi notes the initial promise of a more inclusive, nationalistic leadership, one willing to shed rigid ideological postures in favor of broader Syrian unity. However, he argues that recent actions—opaque political conferences, exclusionary decision-making, and a reluctance to engage with independent revolutionary voices—signal a retreat into factional control and political opportunism. For al-Nifi, the danger lies in the instrumentalization of public discourse—using it to placate or manage dissent rather than foster genuine participation. The result, he fears, may be the consolidation of power by a narrow elite under the guise of pragmatism and national stability.
The Weight of Daily Hardship and External Constraints
Meanwhile, Hassan al-Aswad provides a sobering portrait of Syria’s socio-economic landscape, marred by poverty, unemployment, and infrastructural collapse. He details how the lack of access to resources, the persistence of international sanctions, and the absence of foreign investment are strangling the economy. Al-Aswad also highlights the disconnect between government rhetoric and the population’s daily struggles, particularly the uneven implementation of reforms and the reappointment of figures linked to the previous regime’s corruption. He emphasizes that public trust is eroding, not only due to economic hardship but because of continued centralization of authority and opaque governance. For al-Aswad, Syria’s road to recovery hinges on restoring faith through institutional reform, transparency, and accountability—elements currently in short supply.
A Common Thread: Between Change and Continuity
What unites these three analyses is a shared concern about the gap between appearance and reality in Syria’s post-Assad order. Whether examining economic policy (Attia), political representation (al-Nifi), or daily governance (al-Aswad), all three writers converge on the risk that the new leadership may replicate old patterns of exclusion, opacity, and short-termism. Each emphasizes that real transformation requires more than policy tweaks or strategic communication; it demands a fundamental shift in how power is exercised, how decisions are made, and who benefits from them.
Moreover, external pressures—regional rivalries, sanctions, and the geopolitical interests of actors like Iran, Israel, and the United States—compound these internal challenges, limiting the new government’s room for maneuver while offering potential pretexts for further consolidation of authority.
Conclusion: A Defining Test
Syria today faces a defining test of leadership and vision. The fall of Assad has opened a rare opportunity for national reconstruction—politically, economically, and socially. Yet as Paola Attia, Hassan al-Nifi, and Hassan al-Aswad argue in their respective pieces, the path forward is precarious. Without inclusive governance, genuine reform, and a commitment to rebuilding trust, Syria risks trading one form of authoritarianism for another. The future will be determined not by declarations of intent but by the willingness of those in power to share it—and to be held accountable by those they govern.
