The proposed Syrian National Dialogue Conference represents a critical milestone in Syria’s long and tumultuous journey toward rebuilding governance, ensuring stability, and addressing the deep scars left by the Assad regime. While the fall of the Assad regime marked the culmination of a painful chapter, it also opened a new and uncertain phase in the country’s history. The Dialogue Conference, envisioned as a mechanism to navigate this transition, has been shrouded in debates over its purpose, structure, and legitimacy. This analysis merges multiple perspectives, including the roles of the Syrian Coalition and the Negotiating Committee, to explore the broader implications of the conference, its challenges, and the steps needed for its success.
Context and Objectives
The fall of the Assad regime has left Syria in a precarious state, with exhausted institutions and a fractured political landscape. Immediate priorities for the country include ensuring security, addressing severe socioeconomic challenges, and paving the way for a sustainable and inclusive future. However, achieving these objectives requires a clear and unified vision for the political transition—a vision that remains absent.
Ahmad al-Sharaa, leader of the new administration, has proposed convening a National Dialogue Conference as a platform to chart Syria’s future. The conference’s stated objectives include forming a technocratic government reflective of Syria’s diversity, dissolving armed factions, and establishing advisory committees for governance and constitutional drafting. While these goals are laudable, questions remain about the administration’s capacity to oversee such an ambitious endeavor, given the absence of a constitutional framework and the ambiguity surrounding the conference’s structure and objectives.
The broader political landscape adds another layer of complexity. The Syrian Coalition and the Negotiating Committee, once pivotal in opposition efforts, are now grappling with diminished influence and internal fragmentation. Their recent attempts to assert relevance—through meetings with religious leaders and advocacy for UN Resolution 2254—underscore the fractured nature of Syria’s transitional politics.
Challenges to Transition
- Lack of a Clear Framework
The current administration has assumed power without a constitutional framework to define public authorities’ responsibilities or safeguard citizens’ rights. Al-Sharaa’s plan to draft a new constitution within three years and hold general elections in four years highlights the long-term nature of the transition. However, the absence of a transparent and inclusive interim plan has fueled public skepticism and undermined trust in the administration’s ability to manage this critical phase effectively. - Fragmentation Among Political Actors
The Syrian Coalition and the Negotiating Committee exemplify the challenges of fragmentation and disunity. Once key players in the opposition, these bodies have struggled to adapt to the post-Assad reality. The Coalition continues to advocate for the implementation of Resolution 2254, which calls for a credible, inclusive, and non-sectarian governing body and UN-supervised elections. However, the new administration has declared this resolution outdated, arguing for amendments to align it with the current political landscape.
Internally, the Coalition and the Negotiating Committee have faced resignations, boycotts, and withdrawals, leaving their influence significantly diminished. For instance, the Moscow Platform suspended its membership in December 2024, while the Cairo Platform has boycotted the Negotiating Committee since mid-2023. Military factions like the Sultan Suleiman Shah and Hamzat divisions have also withdrawn, signaling a loss of cohesion.
These divisions mirror a broader challenge: the inability of political actors to coordinate effectively and present a unified front. This disunity threatens to undermine the inclusivity and legitimacy of the National Dialogue Conference.
- Ambiguity and Exclusivity
While the Dialogue Conference aspires to include all Syrian components, critics have highlighted the administration’s lack of transparency regarding the selection process for attendees. This ambiguity has raised concerns about the marginalization of key political, civil, and social groups and the potential for consolidating power within loyalist circles.
Recent efforts by the Syrian Coalition and the Negotiating Committee to engage with religious leaders, such as Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri and Greek Orthodox Patriarch John X, have been criticized for their limited scope. Critics argue that such engagements do not substitute for broader, more inclusive dialogue that addresses the diverse needs of Syria’s population.
- External Pressures
The international community, including the United States, the European Council, and regional powers like Turkey, has expressed interest in influencing Syria’s transition. While external support can provide valuable resources and legitimacy, it also risks undermining the independence of the dialogue process. The involvement of foreign actors must be carefully managed to avoid perceptions of interference or favoritism.
Proposals for a Comprehensive National Dialogue
To succeed, the National Dialogue Conference must transcend the current administration’s unilateral actions and engage a broad spectrum of Syrian society. This requires a fundamental shift in approach, emphasizing inclusivity, transparency, and collaboration.
Conditions for Success:
- Independence: The dialogue body must operate independently of the administration to ensure credibility and impartiality.
- Binding Outcomes: Decisions reached through the dialogue must be binding for official authorities, fostering trust and accountability.
- Inclusivity: Representation should encompass all segments of Syrian society, including ethnic, religious, and political groups, with strong participation from women and youth.
- Clear Agenda: Key topics should include the foundational principles of a new social contract, guaranteed rights and freedoms, the structure of the future political system, transitional justice, and economic recovery strategies.
Proposed Structure:
The dialogue process should unfold over 12-18 months, managed by an independent body with support from entities like the Arab League and the UN. Discussions should take place across Syrian provinces and diaspora communities, culminating in a comprehensive conference addressing constitutional, governance, and socio-economic issues.
Lessons from the Syrian Coalition and Negotiating Committee
The experiences of the Syrian Coalition and the Negotiating Committee offer valuable lessons for the Dialogue Conference. Their struggles with internal fragmentation, lack of coordination, and reliance on outdated frameworks like Resolution 2254 highlight the importance of adaptability and unity. The Dialogue Conference must address these shortcomings by fostering collaboration among political actors and ensuring that all stakeholders have a voice.
Implementation and Outputs
Several actionable steps are essential for the success of the Dialogue Conference:
- Official Announcement: Al-Sharaa should formally declare the conference’s purpose, timeline, and agenda.
- Preparatory Committee: A diverse committee of politicians, technocrats, and civil society representatives should oversee the conference’s organization.
- Transparent Communication: Regular updates via official channels can counter misinformation and build public trust.
- Professional Logistics: Engaging a specialized management company will ensure the conference’s seamless execution.
- Inclusive Representation: Selection criteria must prioritize inclusivity, with specific quotas for marginalized groups.
- Structured Proceedings: The conference should feature plenary sessions and specialized working groups to address specific issues.
Expected Outcomes:
- Affirming Syria’s territorial integrity and national unity.
- Transitioning from revolutionary to constitutional legitimacy.
- Establishing a technocratic transitional government.
- Drafting a provisional constitutional declaration.
- Creating councils for transitional justice, reconstruction, and refugee return.
- Setting a timeline for elections and drafting a permanent constitution.
Conclusion
The Syrian National Dialogue Conference represents both a challenge and an opportunity for Syria’s future. By addressing the lessons learned from the Syrian Coalition and Negotiating Committee, the Dialogue Conference can avoid the pitfalls of fragmentation and exclusivity. Success will hinge on the administration’s willingness to embrace transparency, inclusivity, and collaboration. With these principles at its core, the Dialogue Conference has the potential to lay the foundation for a democratic, unified, and stable Syria, reflecting the aspirations of all its citizens.
