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How Will the Ukrainian War Change Syrian Political Reality?

The U.S. is using Syria to send messages to Russia over its war in Ukraine, according to al-Hal Net.
Ukraine Says Bodies of Russian Mercenaries Have Tags 'Showing Syrian Phone Numbers'
How Will the Ukrainian War Change Syrian Political Reality?

Damascus’s request for Moscow to align with it in the 2015 war, and the entry of Russian troops with its military power to Syria, seems to have a negative impact on the Syrian government. There is alienation and a global war against Russia after its unjustified invasion of Ukraine and causing a global rift, both politically and economically. 

The war will move to Damascus 

Syrian researcher and politician, lawyer Bassam al-Aysami told al-Hal Net that, in principle, any weakening of Russia in Ukraine and elsewhere will certainly reflect positively on the Syrian issue. Russian President Vladimir Putin, by invading an independent and sovereign state, has put his country not only against Ukraine, but also against the U.S., Europe, and the entire international community.

According to Aysami, this was clearly evident in the vote at the UN General Assembly last Wednesday. Only four countries lined up with Russia. These include Syria and Eritrea, which gives an idea of the size and weight of the countries that have lined up with Moscow. This is a clear indication, in Aysami’s view, of the extent of the international isolation in which Putin has placed his country. 

Aysami believes that the Syrian issue is still outside the concerns and priorities of the U.S.. However, it will also certainly be subject to the tensions of this conflict taking place in Ukraine. The Syrian issue is linked to the developments in Ukraine, as well as the forms that this confrontation can take and where it will reach. 

Opposition is an obstacle to the solution 

Aysami believes that the current Syrian opposition cannot be the bearer of any new development in the Syrian issue. It must be completely replaced and removed through a new formation, with new faces within a structural institution that will actually be able to respond to the demands of the qualitative and new movement in the Syrian issue.

Accountability is slow 

The hashtag launched by the U.S. Embassy in Syria on its website about Syria’s approaching accountability has provoked a strong reaction among analysts. 

Aysami said the hashtag is an American message, telling Syrians that the Syrian issue remains among their concerns. In the eyes of the political researcher, it is also a special message to the Russians from the site of the U.S. Embassy in Syria, telling them that “we will develop confrontation with you outside Ukraine and anywhere in the world.”

Read Also: Conflicting Reports of Syrian Fighters Sent to Ukraine

Tarek Wehbe, a researcher in international relations, told al-Hal Net that Washington is not held accountable in bulk, but follows up and scrutinizes what is happening in Syria. “Sanctions against Syria are still present, and the Syrian regime represented by President Bashar al-Assad remains undesirable as an interlocutor for Syria’s future,” he said. 

Wehbe said U.S. activity linked to assistance in demarcating the border between Lebanon and Israel could address the Syrian-Israeli border, which would give a report on the extent of the Syrian government’s cooperation. However, the current circumstances do not place such accountability on the top of priorities.   

Wehbe points out that the Caesar Act is still in effect in Syria. But if other laws are activated, a personal case may be filed against the Syrian president before the International Criminal Court and he would be banned from traveling to any UN member state. 

On Wednesday, the U.S. Embassy in Damascus announced on social media that March would be an accountability month for the Damascus government. The Embassy is encouraging Syrians to participate through the hashtag #شهر_المحاسبة (#month_of_accountability).

Golden opportunity 

According to political researcher Saddam al-Jasser, Washington is seeking to activate the Syrian issue in order to put pressure on Russia, especially given the moves it has made in recent times regarding the Syrian issue. 

“On Sunday, an arms convoy arrived in the al-Tanf area of Syria, these trucks were loaded with weapons. Washington seems to be sending a message to Russia through Syria that it can proceed in this issue whenever it wants,” Jasser told al-Hal Net. 

Jasser agrees that the war on Ukraine is a golden opportunity to change the balance of power in Syria. He added: “Russia is currently very busy in Ukraine, but the Syrian opposition and armed factions no longer have the power over decisions. This  is an opportunity for Turkey and the U.S., which manipulates the opposition.”


This article was edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.

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