Last Thursday, Ali Asghar Haji, senior advisor to the Iranian Foreign Minister, stated that Tehran has no plans to alter its military presence in Syria, even amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. “Our military advisers remain in Syria, and no decisions have been made to change our troop numbers,” Haji said, according to the Russian news agency Novosti, underscoring that Iran’s deployment remains steady.
Haji’s statement responded to earlier remarks by Russia’s envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, who had suggested that Iran and its affiliated forces had scaled back their military presence in Syria before the onset of the Israeli war against Iran. Lavrentiev’s comments, reported by Russia Today and Novosti, came after the 22nd round of the “Astana” peace talks on Syria, held in Kazakhstan’s capital on the 11th and 12th of this month, with representatives from Russia, Iran, and Syria in attendance.
Direct escalation
Lavrentiev’s comments appeared deliberate, aligning with prior reports from Syrian sources that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard had pulled some senior officers from Syria due to increased Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian leaders. One of the most severe strikes occurred in April when Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus’s Mezzeh district, killing two senior Revolutionary Guard generals, five advisers, and several others. While hardliners in Tehran called for retaliation, Iran’s leadership opted to withdraw senior officers to avoid direct escalation in the volatile Middle Eastern conflict.
Reports at that time suggested that Iran would lean more on allied militias in Syria to maintain its influence, but this plan shifted following Israel’s war against Hezbollah last September, which dealt significant blows to the group’s leadership. Iran’s response was to increase its direct military presence in Syria and Lebanon. This increase has coincided with intensified Israeli strikes across Syria, especially in the Damascus area and regions like Sayyida Zeinab and Qusair in Homs province. Recent strikes have even targeted the 4th Division, an elite unit of the Syrian military known for its close ties to Iran and commanded by Maher al-Assad. In late September, rumours circulated that an Israeli strike on a villa in Yafour, west of Damascus, had attempted to assassinate Maher al-Assad. While he survived, he has since relocated to the Russian Hmeimim base, accompanied by several high-ranking military and political figures aligned with Iran.
Syrian and Iranian Defense Officials Meet to Strengthen Bilateral Cooperation on Regional Security
Lavrentiev’s statement marked the first time Russia has publicly acknowledged limits to its support for Iran’s military presence in Syria. He clarified that Russia’s military mandate in Syria does not include preventing arms transfers to Lebanon via Syria, an issue that Israel must address directly with Iran and the Syrian regime without expecting Russian intervention. This statement underscores Russia’s non-committal stance on the Iranian-Israeli confrontation in Syria, suggesting that Russia views this as a matter for Iran and Syria to handle independently.
It is widely understood that while Russia protects the Syrian regime, only Moscow can dictate the regime’s actions. However, Iran’s entrenched influence, through both its direct forces and allied militias, complicates Syria’s political landscape. The Syrian regime lacks the autonomy to curb Iran’s influence even if it wishes to, given Tehran’s deep penetration into the regime’s security infrastructure. Iran exerts control through Hezbollah’s security apparatus, as well as through Iraqi, Afghan, and Pakistani militias stationed alongside its forces in areas where they confront Turkey-backed factions in the countryside around Aleppo and Idlib.
Iran’s continued hold over Syria through its allied militias partly explains why efforts to pry Assad’s regime away from Tehran have repeatedly failed. Iran’s strategic use of Syria for its regional interests shows no signs of abating, a trend likely to intensify depending on the outcome of the current Israeli conflict and the U.S. administration’s decision on sanctions against Assad.
Ultimately, Iran’s use of Syrian territory for its own objectives leaves Damascus vulnerable to Israeli strikes that increasingly target Syrian infrastructure, residential areas, roads, and bridges, causing extensive damage. Notably, a recent bombing in the Mezzeh neighbourhood targeted a building near a compound where Ali Larijani, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was reportedly meeting with Major General Ali Mamlouk, head of Syria’s National Security Bureau.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
