In a world rife with turmoil, where conflicts stretch from Gaza to Ukraine, Panama to Greenland, and Taiwan, humanity appears to be retreating into a power-driven order, bypassing the international legal frameworks that have governed global affairs for decades. The world is reverting to a pre-1938 reality, where strength dictates outcomes, the weak are subsumed, and international principles yield to the cold calculus of strategic interests.
Turkish Pragmatism in a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
Amid this volatile landscape, Turkey stands out as a nation adept at swiftly adapting to geopolitical shifts. It has refrained from placing blind trust in precarious international alliances or subscribing to the illusion of a world governed solely by international law. Instead, it has maintained military readiness, upheld compulsory service, and engaged in active combat operations rather than relying on theoretical exercises.
Turkey has skillfully navigated its diverse regional dimensions—Turkic, Islamic, and Western modernist—leveraging these identities to advance its national interests while steering clear of ideological entanglements that offer little strategic value.
Historically, Ankara has safeguarded its economic and strategic interests even in the most challenging circumstances. During World War II, it continued exporting nickel to Germany until 1944. It maintained ties with Iran despite Western isolation and refused to enforce sanctions on Russia after the Ukrainian war. The West is fully aware of these maneuvers yet continues to afford Turkey significant latitude within the NATO framework.
As geopolitics once again takes center stage in shaping international relations, Turkey finds itself in an increasingly advantageous position. Over the past decades, it has fortified its strategic standing without becoming overly reliant on Russia for energy or Europe for military hardware. When necessary, it has even inflicted $2 billion in losses on Russian military assets in Armenia and downed a Russian warplane—only to later position itself as a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and a broker between Europe, the United States, and Iran.
Turkey: A Critical Western Ally or an Independent Power?
Despite its pragmatism, Ankara has not severed its alignment with Washington in Syria. With Biden’s arrival in office, Turkey decisively moved to curb Russian influence in the region, swiftly adopting firm stances against the Assad regime. This shift has reverberated across the Middle East, particularly in light of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ambitions to reshape the regional order in alignment with his strategic vision.
As U.S. policies fluctuate and Europe faces mounting pressures, the European Union finds itself compelled to reassess its relationship with Turkey. Over time, Turkey has positioned itself as an indispensable European partner—so much so that both Ukraine and the United States now consider it a reliable security guarantor.
Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has pursued a delicate balancing act—arming Kyiv while maintaining strong economic ties with Moscow. It has not hesitated to challenge Russia militarily in various theaters, from Karabakh to Syria and Libya.
Now, as Russia’s position in Ukraine grows increasingly precarious, Ankara is reinforcing its transatlantic alliances while simultaneously forging deeper strategic relations with Ukraine, ensuring its continued influence within the Euro-Atlantic security framework.
The Greatest Challenge: Relations with the Arab World
Despite its diplomatic successes and rising global stature, Turkey’s relationship with its Arab neighbors remains fraught with uncertainties. How will Turkish-Arab relations evolve, particularly as Iran’s influence wanes and regional power dynamics shift?
In the case of Syria, critical questions arise: After spearheading efforts against the Assad regime, what trajectory will Turkey-Syria relations take? Who will shoulder the burden of post-Assad reconstruction? And what vision does Turkey have for its long-term engagement with a new Syria?
As geopolitical transformations continue to reshape the world order, Turkey emerges as a power adept at capitalizing on shifting realities. It remains committed to a pragmatic approach that carefully balances national interests with international imperatives. As Europe seeks to rectify its strategic miscalculations and the United States recalibrates its Middle East policies, a fundamental question remains: How will Turkey’s role in the region evolve, and what are the broader implications for the Arab world’s future?
Samir al-Taqi is a Syrian researcher and political activist.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
