As Syria enters its first Ramadan since the fall of the Assad regime, economic uncertainties loom large, particularly regarding the role of remittances in the country’s financial stability. With high unemployment rates and the suspension of salaries for many segments of the population, families in Syria increasingly rely on money transfers from relatives abroad to meet their basic needs. However, the influx of foreign currency, instead of providing relief, is being absorbed by market speculators, leaving ordinary Syrians vulnerable to fluctuating exchange rates and economic manipulation.
The Significance of Remittances in a Post-Assad Syria
For years, remittances have played a crucial role in sustaining the Syrian economy, especially during Ramadan when financial support from the diaspora traditionally increases. The month-long rise in household spending, combined with the injection of foreign currency, usually strengthens the Syrian pound (SYP) against the US dollar. This year, however, Syria is in uncharted waters, navigating a new political and economic reality. The easing of financial restrictions, a result of political shifts and reduced sanctions, is expected to facilitate the flow of remittances, possibly exceeding $500 million.
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According to economic expert Ziad al-Ghazali, this influx of funds is expected to boost demand for the Syrian pound, leading to a temporary appreciation of the currency. However, he warns that such an increase in value would not be based on solid economic fundamentals but rather on speculative trading. Syrians, desperate for cash, will likely convert their remittances into pounds quickly, creating short-term liquidity pressures that could destabilize exchange rates. Ghazali also highlights a new trend: Syrians abroad are transferring significant sums for real estate and vehicle purchases, adding another dimension to the demand for foreign currency.
Black Market Manipulation and the Fragility of the Syrian Pound
Despite the expected rise in remittances, the long-term impact on the Syrian pound remains uncertain. Economist Ali Mohammad points out that, historically, daily remittances during Ramadan ranged between $10 million and $12 million, amounting to approximately $300–350 million for the month. With the expansion of Syrian-controlled territories and the reintegration of regions such as Idlib and northern Aleppo, the potential volume of remittances this year could be significantly higher.
However, a crucial concern remains: Will this influx of foreign currency genuinely stabilize the Syrian pound, or will it be manipulated by market speculators? Mohammad argues that in Syria’s current financial environment, where exchange rates in the black market are artificially controlled by unknown entities, remittances could end up enriching currency traders rather than strengthening the economy. If these groups intentionally depress the pound’s value to buy dollars at a lower rate, remittance recipients will receive less than their rightful share, and the Central Bank of Syria will fail to replenish its foreign currency reserves, limiting its ability to defend the exchange rate.
The Role of the Government and the Challenges Ahead
Economic expert Abdul Qader Hasriyeh highlights another structural problem: Syria’s ongoing liquidity crisis. The central bank is struggling to supply banks with sufficient Syrian pounds, a situation that has contributed to the volatile exchange rate. Hasriyeh describes the current valuation of the Syrian pound as “illusory,” acknowledging that government officials have conceded its instability.
While remittances have the potential to strengthen the currency, their effect will be short-lived unless liquidity issues are addressed. Hasriyeh suggests that the government must allow remittances to be disbursed in their original currency (dollars or euros) rather than forcing conversions at an artificially low exchange rate. This would help prevent black market traders from exploiting remittance recipients and stabilize purchasing power.
Hasriyeh also points to unregulated money exchange operators, who often offer exchange rates up to 50% lower than the official market value, creating additional financial losses for Syrians receiving remittances. To combat this, he advocates for strict regulation of exchange offices, increased supply of Syrian currency to stabilize liquidity, and the integration of digital payment solutions such as mobile banking and electronic transactions.
A Fragile Economic Outlook Amidst Structural Reforms
Beyond the issue of remittances, broader economic shifts will also shape Syria’s financial trajectory. This Ramadan coincides with a major government restructuring, including mass layoffs in the public sector, reforms in state institutions, and anticipated wage adjustments for those remaining in employment. Simultaneously, increased imports and smuggling activity could further strain foreign currency reserves, exacerbating instability. The exchange rate is projected to fluctuate between 9,000 and 12,000 Syrian pounds per US dollar, depending on the government’s intervention policies.
To mitigate economic risks, experts recommend the following steps:
- Strictly regulate foreign exchange transactions, ensuring remittances reach beneficiaries at fair market rates.
- Allow remittances to be received in their original currency rather than forcing conversion at government-imposed rates.
- Release additional liquidity into the market to prevent artificial price inflation and ease financial transactions.
- Expand electronic payment systems to reduce reliance on physical cash, decreasing opportunities for black market exploitation.
Will Remittances Help or Hurt Syria’s Economy?
While remittances remain a vital lifeline for millions of Syrians, their potential benefits could be undermined by speculative trading, liquidity shortages, and the influence of black-market currency dealers. Unless the government takes decisive action to regulate the exchange market, ensure fair disbursement of funds, and stabilize the financial sector, Syrians may find themselves at the mercy of economic forces that exploit their need rather than alleviate it.
As the country embarks on a new chapter of governance, economic resilience will depend on transparency, sound fiscal policies, and the ability to protect financial flows from manipulation. The coming weeks will reveal whether remittances serve as a stabilizing force or simply another battleground for Syria’s ongoing economic struggles.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
