Tensions between Israel and Syria have escalated since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, with Israel expanding its military presence in strategic locations such as Mount Hermon (Jabal al-Sheikh), where it has established a military base. While some Israeli officials claim this presence is temporary, others indicate long-term strategic objectives.
Israeli forces have also entered Quneitra and Daraa, opposing the deployment of Syrian military units in the south. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently declared that Israel would not permit Syrian transitional forces to operate in the region, insisting on a fully demilitarized southern Syria under Israeli oversight.
This stance has sparked backlash from Syrian leaders, who view it as a violation of national sovereignty. Imad al-Batin, a Daraa official, denounced Netanyahu’s remarks as blatant interference and urged Syria’s transitional government to take a firmer position against Israel’s actions.
Israel’s Strategic Goals in Syria
Former Syrian diplomat Bashar Ali al-Haj Ali argues that Israel is using Syria’s transitional period to reshape the region’s power dynamics. With Iranian forces withdrawing and Syria still in flux, Israel sees an opportunity to expand its influence, either by directly controlling strategic zones or by imposing new political and military conditions.
Israel is also facing domestic challenges, including growing dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s leadership following the Gaza conflict. Analysts suggest that escalating tensions in Syria could serve as a political distraction from his internal problems.
Meanwhile, journalist Ismat Mansour believes Israel’s motives extend beyond security concerns, arguing that Tel Aviv seeks territorial expansion. By strengthening its hold on Mount Hermon and the Golan Heights, Israel aims to make any future return of the occupied territories nearly impossible.
Israel is also wary of Syria’s new administration and its ties to Turkey, fearing a potentially hostile government in Damascus. To counter this, Israel is reportedly engaging with minority groups inside Syria, possibly as part of a broader effort to fragment the country and weaken centralized governance.
Damascus’ Silence
Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth recently questioned whether Israel’s border security strategy would be fully realized. For now, Syria’s transitional government has remained largely silent, leading to speculation that Damascus is biding its time before responding.
Al-Haj Ali suggests Syria has several options, including reinforcing its military presence in the south, seeking international condemnation of Israel’s actions, or mobilizing local resistance to make an Israeli occupation costly. However, he warns that any military confrontation could give Israel a pretext to escalate further.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces have strengthened their presence in the Golan Heights, stationing troops in seven Syrian villages, including areas beyond Quneitra. Several Arab states, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan, have condemned these actions as an illegal seizure of Syrian territory.
What’s Next?
Israel’s long-term role in southern Syria remains uncertain. If Syria reasserts control over its entire territory, Israel may be forced to withdraw or reassess its strategy. However, if the transitional period drags on, Israel could exploit the political instability to permanently alter the region’s borders.
According to Israel Hayom, Israeli officials have already begun engaging with Syrian Druze leaders to deepen ties, a move seen by many as an attempt to expand Israel’s influence. Syrian transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa, however, reaffirmed Syria’s commitment to national unity, declaring at the National Dialogue Conference that Syria “will remain indivisible.”
For now, the situation remains fluid, with Israel continuing its military maneuvers, while Damascus weighs its next move. Whether Israel succeeds in redrawing the region’s borders or Syria restores its full sovereignty will depend on how regional and international dynamics evolve in the coming months.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
