From October 22 to 24, Russia is hosting the BRICS summit in Kazan, featuring over 20 world leaders, making it the largest international gathering Russia has hosted since its isolation following the war in Ukraine. As Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to showcase his country’s continued relevance and promote alternatives to the dollar-based financial system, attention is also turning to key Middle Eastern issues, particularly Syria.
One potential highlight of the summit is a meeting between Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which could have broader implications than their bilateral relationship. Experts speculate that this encounter may reignite efforts to normalize relations between Ankara and Damascus. Russian mediation has been ongoing, attempting to address political and security obstacles. This meeting precedes the upcoming 22nd round of the Astana process, a key diplomatic forum on Syria.
On Tuesday, Turkish Homeland Party leader Dogu Berencik suggested that the talks between Putin and Erdogan could thwart U.S. plans in Syria and expedite the normalization process between Turkey and Syria. He emphasized that Russian-Turkish cooperation extends beyond economics, focusing on security concerns, including combatting terrorism and ensuring the territorial integrity of both Syria and Turkey.
Skepticism Over Results
Despite the optimism, journalist Mohammed Nureddin, an expert on Turkish affairs, expressed doubts that the Putin-Erdogan meeting would yield tangible outcomes. He noted that conditions in past years were more favorable for achieving a Turkish-Syrian rapprochement, but these opportunities were not seized. Furthermore, Russia’s capacity to intervene directly in regional conflicts has been diminished since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Nureddin added that Turkey is hesitant to make moves on the Syrian issue that might provoke the West. Washington has informed Ankara of its opposition to any reconciliation with Damascus, leaving the decision firmly in Turkey’s hands. While Russia is eager to push for normalization, Turkey remains cautious about engaging in actions east of the Euphrates that could spark tensions with the United States.
The Complex Process of Mediation
The BRICS summit is taking place just before another Astana meeting on Syria, scheduled before the end of 2024. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed on October 16 that plans for the Astana talks are in progress. However, dates were slightly delayed due to scheduling conflicts.
The Astana process, launched in 2017, aims to resolve the Syrian conflict by establishing de-escalation zones and mediating between Ankara, Damascus, and other stakeholders. While some progress has been made, significant challenges remain, particularly in reconciling Turkey’s and Syria’s divergent priorities.
Escalation Before Negotiations
As is often the case, military escalations in northwestern Syria are intensifying ahead of the next round of Astana talks. Russian-backed Syrian government forces have escalated their operations in regions such as Idlib and Aleppo, signaling their intent to strengthen Damascus’ position in the upcoming negotiations. This tactic of military pressure before diplomatic talks has been a consistent Russian approach in Syria.
Reports indicate that Russia has warned opposition factions not to alter the field situation, expressing concern over potential cooperation between these groups and international actors allegedly working to undermine Russian interests.
Normalization Amid Military Tensions
The upcoming Astana meeting comes against the backdrop of repeated statements from Turkish officials about their intent to pursue normalization with the Syrian government. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized in September that key issues for Turkey include addressing the Syrian refugee crisis and combatting terrorism. He reiterated that President Erdogan is open to meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is committed to finding a solution.
Former Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad, however, noted that while Syria has no preconditions for restarting relations, certain “requirements” must be met for successful talks. Chief among these is a clear commitment from Turkey to withdraw from Syrian territories it currently occupies.
As the BRICS summit unfolds, the possibility of Turkish-Syrian normalization remains entangled in regional power dynamics, with Russia continuing its role as a mediator in this complicated process.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
