The ongoing conflict in Syria and its regional implications have once again come into sharp focus with recent developments involving Hezbollah, Israeli airstrikes, and shifting alliances. As Israeli attacks intensify, Hezbollah has begun withdrawing units from Syria, with Iranian-backed militias moving in to replace them. Simultaneously, hundreds of Lebanese civilians are fleeing to Syria, seeking safety from escalating violence. Israeli forces have continued their operations in Syrian airspace, with little response from Syrian defenses. In a broader context, Syria’s strategic ties are also shifting, as Turkey and Saudi Arabia pursue pragmatic normalization with Assad’s regime. However, progress remains slow, largely focused on security concerns, economic interests, and refugee issues. At the same time, a recent investigative report has exposed a secretive supply chain funneling European trucks to Syria despite sanctions. Adding to these complexities, Bashar al-Assad has issued a general amnesty covering military deserters, including Syrians in Turkey, sparking questions about its impact on refugee return efforts. These developments paint a picture of a region in flux, where fragile alliances, humanitarian crises, and international sanctions continue to shape the future.
Hezbollah units leave Syria as clashes with Israel intensify
A war monitor reported on Monday that Hezbollah was withdrawing its fighters from parts of Syria as the Lebanese militia comes under fierce attack from Israel, DPA reported.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that militias loyal to Iran are flocking to the central Syrian city of Palmyra and desert areas to replace departing Hezbollah fighters.
The observatory said Hezbollah evacuated its headquarters in Palmyra and pulled out of surrounding areas. The headquarters was said to have been handed over to members of the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade. Other militias took over weapons depots in the region.
Hezbollah units in Syria have been decamping for the Syrian-Lebanese border region over the past several days, the monitor said, following an escalation in Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
Hundreds Cross Into Syria From Lebanon After Israel Strikes: Security Source
AFP reported that some 500 people have crossed from Lebanon to war-torn Syria, a Syrian security official told AFP Tuesday, fleeing the deadliest Israeli bombardment since Hezbollah and Israel fought a devastating war in 2006.
“Around 500 people crossed the border through the Qusayr and Dabousiya crossings between 4 pm (1300 GMT) and midnight” Monday, the security official told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
“Vehicles were still crossing in the early hours of the morning, with people heading towards friends’ and acquaintances’ homes in the Homs countryside and in the city of Homs,” he said.
Cab driver Osama Bilal, who often drives customers across the border, said he saw dozens of cars with Lebanese registration plates packed with passengers and their belongings at the Masnaa border crossing.
The crossing lies on the road to Damascus from Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley, a Hezbollah stronghold which was pounded by Israeli strikes on Monday.
Firas Makki, who fled from the Baalbek district, a Hezbollah stronghold, was among those seeking refuge over the border.
“There is no town in the Baalbek area that has not been targeted,” he said, adding his family was heading to a relative’s house in Damascus.
“Most of the men stayed behind, but we left with the women and children because they’re our priority and the children were very scared,” he said.
Israeli aircraft violate Syrian airspace with air defences staying silent
Israeli aircraft violated Syrian airspace and flew heavily over two southwestern provinces on Saturday without being confronted.
Syrian air defences did not counter the aircraft flying over Quneitra and the western Daraa countryside, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Mohammed Al-Hourani, a media activist, told The New Arab’s that there was ongoing Israeli air movement near the Syrian border, with the frontier sometimes being violated.
It wasn’t known whether the breaches were intended to send “specific messages” to the regime or came in the context of intensified Israeli air activity towards southern Lebanon in recent days, with Israel comfortable the Golan Heights front is safe and there is little risk if its aircraft enter Syrian airspace.
How Israeli Forces Destroyed a Secret Weapons Facility in Syria
The New York Times published a detailed report which sheds light on Israel’s recently conducted commando raid on a secret Hezbollah weapons production facility in Masyaf, Syria.
According to The Times, the operation, involving both airstrikes and ground troops, targeted a site used to produce precision-guided missiles for Hezbollah. Israeli helicopters dropped commandos who penetrated the facility’s underground reinforced rooms, ensuring its complete destruction.
The facility, part of Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center, had been previously struck by Israel and was reportedly involved in developing ballistic and chemical weapons before Syria’s civil war. Iran played a significant role in the center’s operations, with the facility serving Hezbollah’s missile needs. This strike is part of Israel’s broader efforts to counter Hezbollah’s missile capabilities amid ongoing tensions in the region.
No Israeli casualties were reported, and the facility is expected to be out of operation for an extended period. Israel notified U.S. military officials ahead of the raid, highlighting the coordination between the two countries on regional security.
In Syria and beyond, holding our breath for what might to be come
The New Humanitarian published a detailed report that sheds light on the profound sense of fear, instability, and uncertainty experienced by people in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine as regional tensions continue to rise. The report features personal testimonies, including that of Zeina Shahla, a Syrian journalist and researcher, who poignantly describes feeling trapped in a continuous cycle of anxiety and despair, exacerbated by escalating violence and the constant threat of a wider regional war.
Shahla reflects on her personal journey, growing up in Damascus and witnessing the country’s descent into chaos following the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011. She recounts how, during the early years of the conflict, she lived under constant bombardment and fear for her family’s safety. While some areas of Damascus have seen reduced fighting since 2018, the economic collapse, widespread poverty, and threat of renewed conflict have made life more difficult than ever. She notes that in northwest Syria, millions remain displaced, and many continue to live in tents, highlighting the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
The situation has worsened due to the economic devastation brought on by war, Western sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Lebanon’s economic collapse, all of which have severely impacted Syria. Shahla points out how inflation has skyrocketed, with one U.S. dollar now worth around 15,000 Syrian pounds, compared to 50 pounds before 2011, making it nearly impossible for most Syrians to afford basic goods. With over 90% of the population living in poverty, survival has become a daily struggle.
The report also captures the rising fear of a regional war, particularly after recent Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, which left over 37 people dead. Shahla reflects on the heightened tension in the region, noting that the war in Gaza and Hezbollah’s retaliatory missile strikes have brought the prospect of a broader conflict closer than ever. The constant fear of impending disaster has left many in the Middle East feeling trapped in a perpetual state of waiting for the next crisis.
Despite these immense challenges, Shahla emphasizes the resilience of people in Syria. As a journalist, she often reports on cultural, social, and environmental issues, focusing on how people in the country continue to create, innovate, and cope with the dire situation. She takes solace in documenting the stories of craftspeople, artists, and farmers who persist in their efforts to rebuild a sense of normalcy, even amid the chaos.
However, the burden of living through such constant uncertainty weighs heavily on her and others. Shahla notes that the stress of everyday life—whether it’s securing electricity, accessing fuel, or worrying about potential airstrikes—has led to a rise in psychological issues such as anxiety and depression. She herself has developed the habit of grinding her teeth at night, something her dentist says has become common among many Syrians due to the tension they endure.
The report underscores that, for many Syrians like Shahla, the question of whether to stay or leave the country is ever-present. While she feels deeply connected to her life and community in Syria, the deteriorating conditions and constant fear of new conflicts make staying an exhausting and precarious choice. Lebanon, often seen as an escape route, is itself unstable and embroiled in conflict, leaving many Syrians with limited options for refuge.
The Secretive Supply Chain Sending EU Trucks to Syria
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project | OCCRP published a report on a secretive supply chain that has been funneling European Union-branded trucks into Syria, where they are being used by the Syrian army. Despite heavy EU sanctions imposed on Syria since the start of its civil war in 2011, which aim to limit the Assad regime’s ability to purchase goods, videos have surfaced showing new-looking trucks from European manufacturers such as Scania and Mercedes transporting military equipment in Syria. An undercover investigation conducted by reporters from OCCRP revealed how these vehicles are routed through neighboring countries like Jordan and Lebanon, avoiding direct export to Syria.
The investigation uncovered that while exporting ordinary road trucks to Syria isn’t explicitly banned under EU sanctions, traders and customs brokers have been using indirect routes and free trade zones in Jordan and Lebanon to bypass restrictions. Interviews with traders in several EU countries, including Germany and Sweden, highlighted how shipments are diverted through ports like Aqaba in Jordan and manipulated through free zones to make their way into Syria. These methods often involve falsifying paperwork and paying bribes to ensure the trucks reach their final destination.
The report also highlights the limits of sanctions enforcement, noting that while they are designed to curb the Syrian regime’s access to goods, they often leave loopholes that allow traders to exploit vague regulations. European manufacturers like Volvo, Scania, and Daimler Truck claim they comply with sanctions, but admit they cannot fully control the resale of trucks by third parties. The trucks, although civilian in nature, have played a crucial role in transporting tanks and artillery for the Syrian military, raising concerns about their impact on the ongoing conflict.
Assad issues amnesty also covering refugees in Türkiye
Syria’s Bashar al-Assad on Sunday issued a general amnesty for those involved in minor offenses. The pardon, traditional on the part of Assad, who occasionally issues such mass pardons, differs from others as it also covers Syrians abroad, particularly in Türkiye, Daily Sabah reported.
The amnesty for those involved in military desertion and minor crimes committed before Sept. 22, 2024, comes amid a thaw between Türkiye and the Assad regime. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters last week that they were ready to hold talks with Assad, more than a decade after Ankara and Damascus severed relations in the wake of the 2011 unrest.
Media outlets reported that the decree includes a full pardon for those convicted of “internal and external desertion” under the Syrian military penal code and excludes those who do not turn themselves in within three months and four months for external desertion.
Experts speculate that this may encourage the voluntary return of refugees in Türkiye, which hosts the largest number of Syrian nationals under international protection status, though it is unclear whether Assad’s move would prompt mass returns. Türkiye aims to send all refugees home but only voluntarily and in a “dignified” way, as authorities often say. Nevertheless, the situation is still not entirely calm for mass returns to Syria, which was ruined by years of conflict. Türkiye, which helped the liberation of northern Syrian towns from terrorist groups in recent years, spearheads efforts for rebuilding and safety to facilitate the returns.
