As Syria begins to emerge from the shadows of conflict, the country stands at a critical economic crossroads. If political stability is achieved and the path to national recovery begins in earnest, Syrian lawmakers will face difficult decisions about the country’s economic future. After nearly five decades of a quasi-socialist system marred by clientelism, chaos, and crony capitalism, a pressing question confronts the nation’s economic elites: which economic model truly suits Syria and its people?
Some voices, both within Syria and abroad, are calling for the adoption of a free market economy. However, there are serious concerns about the viability and challenges of this model, particularly in the context of Syria’s current conditions and socio-economic fabric. A free market economy, which relies on the forces of supply and demand, free exchange, private ownership, and corporate competition, may not seamlessly align with Syria’s realities or the mindset of its population.
The country underwent a significant political shift with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Prior to that, the Syrian economy was teetering on the brink of collapse, battered by years of war and sweeping sanctions. In the aftermath of regime change, the new government initiated a series of market-oriented reforms, including liberalizing the exchange rate and legalizing the use of the U.S. dollar and Turkish lira alongside the Syrian pound—once a criminal offense. These measures helped the Syrian pound appreciate by 20–30% against the dollar, and the prices of basic foodstuffs such as oil, sugar, rice, and potatoes dropped by 10–25%, according to figures from the Syrian Interim Government. Subsidies on most goods—except bread—were lifted, and customs duties were slashed by up to 60%.
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Optimists argue that a free market model could open Syria to global markets, attract foreign investment, and strengthen its integration into the international economy. However, this enthusiasm may be premature and even dangerous. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani proclaimed that Syria would follow the development models of Singapore and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Damascus Chamber of Commerce board member Mohammad al-Hallaq hailed the shift toward a free economy as a “qualitative leap” that would elevate local products. Syrian industrialist Atef Tayfour described the free market as a “national future goal,” predicting it would foster competition, improve quality, and offer consumers more choices.
Yet such optimism is fraught with risk. Shibani’s assertion is questionable, given that Syria lacks the vast resources and institutional capacities that enabled Singapore and Saudi Arabia to thrive in a free-market context. Implementation of this model faces formidable obstacles: economic activity remains sluggish, many public institutions and enterprises have yet to resume normal operations, security remains fragile in several regions, and widespread looting and destruction have debilitated the public sector. High transport costs and unpaid wages for tens of thousands of state and former military employees further hinder recovery.
Sectoral disparities also loom large. Syria’s food and pharmaceutical industries—known for their quality and reliability—may remain competitive. However, electronics, household goods, and textiles are likely to struggle under the weight of imported alternatives flooding local markets.
For a free market economy to succeed, Syria must first boost productivity across all sectors, particularly industry. This requires targeted support, protective tariffs for locally produced goods, affordable energy, and accessible credit. Only then can the state generate sufficient revenue for investment spending and, ultimately, societal welfare. Crucially, success also depends on creating a business-friendly environment, eradicating corruption rooted in the Assad regime and its pseudo-socialist bureaucracy, and ensuring that one corrupt system is not merely replaced by another—be it that of HTS or any other faction.
In principle, the free market holds promise for Syria: it could attract investment, enhance competitiveness, and raise product quality. But its success hinges on security, political stability, infrastructure development, investor-friendly legislation, and robust protections for local producers. A gradual transition, bolstered by social safety nets for the most vulnerable, equitable resource distribution, transparency, and anti-corruption measures, may be the only viable path forward. Without these foundations, free market aspirations risk becoming yet another unfulfilled promise.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
