This news round explores various stories from Western media analyzing the latest developments in Syria.
The Syrian civil war has entered a new phase as rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seize significant territories, including most of Aleppo, marking the most serious challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in years. This unexpected advance comes amid a backdrop of weakened support for Assad from key allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—who face their own geopolitical distractions.
HTS, an Islamist group with a complex history rooted in Syria’s 2011 uprising, has transformed its strategy, leveraging alliances and governance efforts to consolidate power. Their rapid offensive highlights cracks in Assad’s defenses, underscoring the fragile state of his rule. Meanwhile, international actors, including the United States and its allies, have called for de-escalation, urging a political solution to the long-standing conflict.
As the rebels push southward, pro-Assad forces are regrouping with reinforcements from Iranian-backed militias, signaling an impending counteroffensive. This unfolding situation reshapes Syria’s battlefield and raises questions about the future of governance and stability in the war-torn country.
Syrian rebels wrest control of most of Aleppo; U.S. and allies ‘urge de-escalation’ in joint statement
Syrian rebel fighters are advancing southward after capturing much of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, posing the most serious challenge to President Bashar al-Assad in years amid the country’s civil war, which began after an uprising against the government in 2011, The Washington Post reported.
The rapid assault is being led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist rebel group based in northwestern Syria’s Idlib province. Government forces, which are supported by Russia and Iran, appeared to have withdrawn from some areas. As the rebels tightened their grip on Aleppo on Sunday, they posted photos and videos of themselves at various military installations in and around the city. Insurgent fighters also said they seized territory around Aleppo, including areas in the north previously controlled by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces.
Syria’s allies in Russia, Venezuela and Iran showed support for Assad over the weekend. Meanwhile longtime critics, the United States, Britain, France and Germany, released a joint statement Sunday saying they “urge de-escalation by all parties” and the protection of civilians, while also calling for a “Syrian-led political solution to the conflict.”
The Syrian military said it was redeploying forces from areas it controlled in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, though it continued to conduct airstrikes in both places Sunday. HTS said it had seized a military academy in Aleppo, thought to be the only area of the city remaining under government control. The group announced a 12-hour curfew in the city, from Sunday evening to Monday morning.
The illusion of Assad’s grip on Syria shatters, as Russia, Iran and Hezbollah let their guard down
A CNN analysis highlights the crumbling illusion of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime stability, as rebel forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham launched a swift offensive from Idlib, capturing Aleppo and advancing toward Hama. The regime’s collapse in northern Syria is attributed to the waning support of its key allies—Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran—due to external pressures like Hezbollah’s focus on Israel, Russia’s commitment to Ukraine, and Israeli strikes on Iran’s Syrian assets.
The Assad dynasty, in power since 1971, has endured decades of corruption, economic mismanagement, and a devastating civil war. Despite surviving internal and external challenges, the recent rebel gains reveal the regime’s fragility and challenge its narrative of victory, underscoring the reality that even long-standing regimes face eventual decline.
Rebels’ Advance Appears to Buoy Syrian Opposition in Exile
A Syrian opposition leader in exile appeared intent on Monday on capitalizing on rebels’ recent startling gains in the country, demanding on Monday that President Bashar al-Assad commit to a political transition.
The opposition leader, Hadi al-Bahra, spoke from Turkey as rebels continued their advance through Aleppo, once Syria’s largest city, and the surrounding areas.
While Mr. Al-Bahra does not speak for the rebels, their capture of Aleppo has seemingly reinvigorated his group’s longstanding demands for a democratic transition, according to A New York Times report.
He told a news conference broadcast from his base in Istanbul that the rebel offensive was supported by a population weary of crimes committed by Mr. al-Assad along with his Iranian and Russian backers.
The fighting will continue, he said, until the Syrian leader acquiesces — a prospect that Mr. Al-Bahra said the opposition was prepared for.
Negotiations could start “tomorrow,” he added.
Mr. Al-Bahra demanded the implementation of the stalled 2015 United Nations Security Council resolution 2254, which lays out a road map for Syria’s political transition, starting with a cease-fire. It is, he said, “the only sustainable political solution in Syria.”
“We have the right to use whatever means to ensure its implementation,” he said.
Iraqi militias enter Syria to reinforce government forces, military sources say
Reuters reports that hundreds of fighters from Iran-backed Iraqi militias crossed into Syria overnight to help the government fight rebels who seized Aleppo last week, Syrian and Iraqi sources said on Monday, and Tehran pledged to aid the Damascus government.
At least 300 fighters, primarily from the Badr and Nujabaa groups, crossed late on Sunday using a dirt road to avoid the official border crossing, two Iraqi security sources said, adding that they were there to defend a Shi’ite shrine.
A senior Syrian military source said the fighters had crossed in small groups to avoid airstrikes. “These are fresh reinforcements being sent to aid our comrades on the front lines in the north,” the source said.
The head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces said no group under its umbrella had entered Syria, and that it does not operate outside Iraq.
Iran’s constellation of allied regional militia groups has long been integral to the success of pro-government forces in subduing rebels who rose up against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011, and they have long maintained bases in Syria.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday Syria’s military was capable of confronting the rebels but, referring to the regional militia groups Tehran backs, he added that “resistance groups will help and Iran will provide any support needed”.
Syrian government and Russian warplanes intensified attacks on Monday in areas held by rebels in the northwest, residents and rescue workers said, including a strike on a displaced people’s camp that killed seven.
Syria’s Rebels Struck When Assad’s Allies Were Weakened and Distracted
A New York Times analysis highlights how diminished support from Syria’s key allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—allowed opposition forces to gain momentum and seize new territory. Over the years, these allies played critical roles in propping up Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
However, Iran has been weakened by Israeli airstrikes and economic challenges, Hezbollah is depleted after its war with Israel, and Russia is preoccupied with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Seizing the opportunity, rebel forces, particularly Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, launched a surprise offensive, rapidly capturing Aleppo and altering Syria’s stagnant front lines. The Assad regime’s vulnerabilities were exacerbated by weakened defenses, economic mismanagement, forced military conscription, and a lack of popular support.
Analysts emphasize that Assad’s previous survival was due to foreign aid, but with his allies distracted, the balance of power in Syria has shifted significantly.
Who are the rebels who have seized control of Aleppo, Syria?
An NPR article explores the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel group that recently seized Aleppo in a dramatic military offensive, altering the dynamics of Syria’s long-standing civil war. Emerging from the 2011 uprising, HTS, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra and once linked to Al-Qaeda, has evolved into a nationally focused group with a mix of military strength and governance ambitions.
HTS’s recent success is attributed to months of preparation and coordination, coupled with weakened defenses from the Assad regime and its allies, including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The group’s ability to rapidly capture Aleppo underscores its professionalization and strategic shift, including alliances with other rebel factions and a reduced focus on global jihadist goals.
In its controlled areas, particularly Idlib, HTS has sought legitimacy through governance, working with international aid organizations, Turkey, and even minority communities like Christians. Analysts highlight HTS’s efforts to replicate this governance model in newly captured territories, leveraging economic diversification and local administration.
However, holding and governing the expanded territory presents challenges. Assad’s forces, supported by Russian and Iranian allies, are preparing a counteroffensive. Experts caution that HTS’s stretched resources and alliances of convenience may weaken its control if it overextends into southern regions. Despite its gains, HTS faces significant hurdles in maintaining long-term dominance in Syria’s complex conflict.
