The Syrian regime has been unable to avoid the fires raging across the region. Just as the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon began, it found itself engulfed in a northern inferno that took not only the regime but also its primary allies—Russia and Iran—by surprise. Reports surfaced that Assad was urgently summoned to Moscow, though Kremlin spokespersons neither confirmed nor denied this. This “secret” summons, however, became the subject of Russian mockery, with one commentator quipping that “Assad didn’t come to Moscow to ask for help; he came to inquire about renting a low-cost villa on the outskirts of Rostov” (Rostov was reportedly a stop during Assad’s journey).
Details of Assad’s meeting with Putin remain undisclosed, but Kremlin-controlled media highlighted Assad’s failure to modernize his army while opposition factions have steadily built a semi-regular military force. This narrative hints at the tone and content of Putin’s conversation with Assad.
The Russian opposition website Kasparov compiled commentary from several prominent political writers on November 29. The lead article, titled “The Ground Burns Under His (Assad’s) Feet”, focused on what the site described as a “strong counterattack” by Syrian opposition forces on the strategically significant city of Aleppo. It noted that “Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad” immediately flew to Moscow. Analysts agreed the timing of the counterattack was “remarkably opportune,” as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah are now unable to extend the level of support they provided in 2015.
Opposition Forces Gain Momentum
Arkady Dubnov, a specialist in Central Asian affairs, wrote in his blog that the ground in Syria has “almost literally ignited under Assad’s feet.” He posited that this urgent crisis explains Assad’s unanticipated trip to Moscow, which occurred even before Putin returned from Astana. Dubnov noted the involvement of Syrian regular forces, Iranian Revolutionary Guard units, and Russian Wagner fighters in Aleppo’s defence, alongside reports of heavy casualties among these groups.
Dubnov dismissed the idea that the simultaneous Syrian escalation and Lebanese ceasefire were coincidental. He argued that Iran’s regional influence has waned, allowing its adversaries to target its allies.
Aleppo as a Second Front
The Kremlin-affiliated newspaper VZ described Aleppo’s fall as the opening of a second war front against Russia in Syria. On November 30, it reported expert consensus that Aleppo’s capture was no surprise, attributing the defeat to years of negligence by the Syrian military, which failed to implement necessary reforms. In contrast, opposition forces conducted regular military drills and received international support, including from Ukraine.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov criticized the Syrian regime’s inability to enact reforms or improve the almost collapsed armed forces. Since 2020, little effort has been made to strengthen the military’s operational capacity. This stagnation was exacerbated by Israel’s heavy bombardment of pro-Iranian forces in Lebanon and Syria, forcing these units to redeploy, including in Aleppo. Consequently, pro-Iranian formations in Aleppo were unable to sustain the fight, retreating early in the confrontation. Semenov also questioned the opposition’s capacity to manage a city as large as Aleppo, despite their swift victory.
Semenov highlighted that groups like Tahrir al-Sham have established a regular army in Idlib, equipped with modern weapons and drones. This force has created a cohesive command structure, comprising approximately 30 brigades, and has developed a military academy to train its fighters.
Missteps and Consequences
The Russian nationalist newspaper SP hosted analyses from three experts, concluding with the headline “The Situation in Aleppo Should Lead to Kyiv’s Complete Surrender”. A subheading added, “How Freezing Conflicts Becomes a Legacy of War for Future Generations, as Seen in Syria.”
In its December 1 report, SP described the opposition’s seizure of Aleppo as an unexpected and poorly
calculated event for both Moscow and Damascus. The timing was described as “perfect,” coinciding with Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, Hezbollah’s leadership vacuum and exhaustion from its war with Israel, and Iran’s current focus elsewhere.
Political analyst Vladimir Blinov attributed the Aleppo situation to a grave misjudgment by the Syrian military, which failed to monitor pro-Turkish groups despite Russia providing the necessary security infrastructure. He highlighted Turkey’s impatience with merely observing regional events, as it rushes to assert its influence through proxies.
Blinov warned that any war left unresolved risks empowered militias imposing their will unpredictably. While acknowledging Russia’s limited role as a guest on Syria’s battlefield, he posed a critical question for Assad: How can Syria balance relations with pro-Turkish forces? He suggested that Assad must either broker an agreement with Turkey or prepare to dismantle its military influence.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
